Marion, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

297
FXUS63 KICT 161946
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances increasing late tonight into Wednesday morning,
  especially for locations along and west of I-135
- Shower/storm chances will ramp-up again for Wednesday night
  through Thursday area wide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Currently have an upper low extending from the Northern
Intermountain into the Great Basin with another upper low over
the Southern Mid Atlantic States. At the surface, cold front
extends from northern MN into western Nebraska.
Very subtle upper wave at or above 500mb was responsible for
the convection just east of Wichita this morning with this
impulse slowly lifting off to the northeast. Current thinking is
that the bulk of the showers and storms late this afternoon and
early evening should remain east of I-135 and more than likely
over southeast KS into the Ozark region with this activity being
diurnally driven. Additional storms late this afternoon/early
evening will be possible over western KS which will be closer to
the better upper dynamics and may also be aided by some upslope
processes.
After midnight, scattered showers and storms are expected be
moving-in from northwest KS as upper energy currently over
central CO continues to slide east. Also feel that some of this
may be outflow driven by widespread convection over western
Nebraska. With the better upper dynamics staying off to the
northwest, confidence is fairly high that we are not looking at
widespread showers or storms for Wed morning or afternoon with
convection remaining more scattered in nature.
A more robust upper impulse is then expected to sink south
across the Great Basin early Wed evening and out across eastern
CO/western KS by early Thu morning. Large area of upper
diffluence associated with this feature will result in
widespread showers and storms moving-in from the west. We should
see rain coverage decrease from west to east Thu afternoon with
mainly southeast KS having the high rain chances Thu night. 12z
GFS is more progressive with the vort lobe compared to the 12z
ECMWF. If the GFS verifies most of our area would be rain free
by Fri morning. However, the slower ECMWF would linger rain
around through at least Fri morning across southeast KS. For
now will leave rain in for southeast KS on Fri and continue to
monitor model trends.
Confidence for rain chances is currently low for this weekend
as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Models are hinting at
a weak impulse moving out of the central Rockies and over the
area Sat evening into Sun which may keep at least some small
rain chances around.
As far as temps go, we are looking for highs a couple degrees
above normal for Wed with a cool-down for Thursday and to a
lesser degree Fri. For this weekend we are currently going with
highs around seasonal averages with maxes topping out in the
low and mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms continue to pop up in south
central and southeast KS early this afternoon. Per previous cycles,
the strongest of these are anticipated to produce gusty winds and
brief heavy rain. Confidence in the coverage and timing of these
remains too low for a mention at any site at this time, so radar and
satellite trends will be monitored to AMD this afternoon.
We continue to expect showers and thunderstorms to move into the
area from western KS early Wednesday morning. Decided to keep
PROB30s for TSRA and MVFR visibilities for this cycle at all sites
except CNU, with prevailing VCTS following initial storm passage.
Later forecast cycles will likely have a better handle on timing for
these impacts.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion