Mason, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS64 KSJT 180526
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, but near-normal temperatures continue today
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily Sunday
  through Tuesday.
- After above normal temperatures Friday through Monday,
  temperatures should be at least a little cooler Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Expect overnight lows in the 60s. An upper level trough will track
across the Plains tonight into Thursday. This will send a weak cold
front into north Texas and eventually into northern portions of the
Big Country late Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible across mainly the northern Big Country Thursday afternoon,
but most of this activity will remain north of the area. Highs will
be near to slightly above normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A ridge of high pressure will sit across northern Mexico over the
next few days. This will leave our area under the influence of this
system. This means hot and dry conditions will largely continue
through Friday.
Then, an embedded disturbance will move across the northern Texas
late Saturday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an
isolated rain shower or thunderstorm on Saturday evening through
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will largely be limited to the
I-20 corridor and northward given the track of this disturbance.
By Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a low pressure system
developing across the Plains. However, the GFS keeps the low
centered further to the north, which will limit rain chances given
the track of the low pressure center. Given the differences in model
tracks, it seems reasonable to keep rain chances limited a bit next
week given the uncertainty. This may change if higher levels of
consistency are seen in future model runs. Regardless, what seems
most likely is we see a weak cold frontal boundary move into the
area on Monday and Tuesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will
result, but highs will still remain in the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Generally VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds early this
morning will be light, then increase to around 10KT after 15Z,
before decreasing later this evening. Some occasional gusts near
20KT could occur this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  69  93  70 /  10  10  10   0
San Angelo  91  66  92  67 /   0  10  10   0
Junction    91  65  92  65 /  10   0  10   0
Brownwood   92  68  92  68 /   0  10  10   0
Sweetwater  92  68  93  70 /  10  10  10   0
Ozona       89  65  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       89  68  90  67 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SK

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion