Mayfield, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS63 KICT 291900
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
200 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extended period of above average temperatures and mostly dry weather
  persists the next several days, although can`t rule out a few
  isolated showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night.
- Increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms by Saturday night or
  Sunday, and persisting into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
A deep upper trough currently over the central and southern Rockies
will pass overhead tonight and Tuesday. Weak forcing and meager
moisture will only support dense mid and high level clouds for most,
with only an outside chance of a sprinkle or two from cloud bases
around 15,000 ft.
From late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a pair of phasing
shortwaves approaching from the west amidst increasing mid-level
moisture and weak buoyancy may support a few showers/thunderstorms,
mainly along/west of the Flint Hills. Thinking any activity will be
fairly isolated, and strong/severe storms are not expected. Chances
appear too low at this point to insert rain chances into the
forecast, but will continue to monitor model trends.
As we head into the weekend and next week, model consensus supports
increasing western CONUS upper troughing, along with the potential
for a cold front approaching from the northwest. Increasing lift,
moisture, and instability may support increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Uncertainty remains high this
far out in the forecast, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details
in the coming day.
TEMPERATURES:
Per model consensus, above average atmospheric heights/thickness
will support continued above average temperatures through at least
the weekend. The latest Canadian model solution does attempt to
progress a strong cold front through the area as we head into early
to mid next week, although the GFS and ECMWF keep this front north
of the region, which would support continued above average
temperatures. This remains fairly far out in the forecast period, so
we`ll continue to monitor model trends in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions through the period with southeasterly winds.
Increasing mid level cloud cover expected after 00Z with BKN
cigs between 20-25k feet expected. Winds over 10 knots this
afternoon will diminish tonight, increasing again after 15Z on
Tuesday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion