Mc Cain, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS62 KRAH 110801
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend down through
the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week,
although a lingering frontal zone near the Carolina coast will bring
periods of clouds and unsettled weather, mainly over the eastern
Carolinas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
SW flow aloft will prevail across central NC today, on the east side
of a positively-tilted mid-level trough that slowly moves from the
OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. However, the main story will be the
moist low-level air mass still in place, due to NNE flow between
surface high pressure extending down from Quebec into the
Appalachians and a frontal zone east of the NC coast. This is
bringing fairly widespread low clouds to the region, outside of the
western Piedmont where drier air is resulting in more clearing. Some
patchy rain and drizzle has developed, and despite the clouds being
too shallow for any ice to form, there have still been a few areas
with decent returns on radar and observations exceeding a tenth of
an inch. This includes KRDU, which actually reported 0.33 inches of
rain from 2 to 3 AM. Additional light rain and drizzle will be
possible in the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain
overnight, so have slight chance POPs there. In the western Piedmont
where there is more clearing, some patchy shallow fog will be
possible late tonight and early this morning, which is already
beginning to show up in observations and satellite imagery to the
north over south-central VA.
The cold front and elongated low pressure along it will move farther
E/NE into the Atlantic today, so drier air and below-normal PW
values will gradually erode the remainder of the moist low-level air
mass across central NC. While skies will initially range from mostly
sunny west to mostly cloudy east this morning, clouds will gradually
scatter out even in the east this afternoon. This will bring
decreasing chances for rain and drizzle, but with weak MUCAPE on the
order of 100-300 J/kg, CAMS and global models still show a few
isolated showers can`t be ruled out across the Coastal Plain, so
have slight chance POPs there. With continued N/NE flow at the
surface, high temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal,
ranging from mid-to-upper-70s in the Coastal Plain where cloud cover
will be most persistent to lower-80s elsewhere. Thursday night`s
lows will drop into the mid-50s to lower-60s under mostly clear
skies. Patchy fog will be possible across the entire region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Thursday...
The mid/upper trough will slowly move east across central NC on
Friday and Friday night, with a ridge building over the Southern
Plains. But with surface high pressure centered over SE Canada and
New England extending down into the Mid-Atlantic, below-normal PW
values should keep away any rain chances, and skies will be partly
to mostly sunny. Persistent NE flow from the high will keep high
temperatures slightly below normal, in the upper-70s to lower-80s.
Friday night`s lows will be in the mid-to-upper-50s under clear
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...
* Dry weather with near-normal temperatures likely.
Surface ridging and high pressure will generally continue to
dominate over central North Carolina in the long term period.
Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees below normal, or in
the upper 70s to the low 80s, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Temperatures should rise Sunday and Monday, making Monday the
warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s. A dry backdoor
cold front looks to move through the region Monday with stronger
surface high pressure building back in behind it. This should allow
temperatures to drop back into the low-to-mid 80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Moisture should be limited during the long
term period which allows for no rain expected.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...
24-hour TAF period: Moist NE flow is resulting in fairly widespread
MVFR to IFR ceilings across central NC, with the exception of the
western Piedmont (including INT and GSO) where there is more
clearing or ceilings are VFR. Guidance does show some potential for
fog/mist at INT and GSO early this morning, so introduced TEMPO
groups for IFR/MVFR visibilities there. Farther east at RDU, FAY and
RWI, IFR ceilings are expected to persist overnight, with a chance
for LIFR ceilings. Patchy drizzle and mist may also result in
periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. Ceilings will lift to MVFR
everywhere by mid to late morning, with clouds lifting to VFR and
scattering out from west to east by early to mid afternoon. Winds
will generally be light (less than 7 kts) and from the NE through
the period.
Looking beyond 06z Friday: Slow drying will take place, and central
NC terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week, with ridges
of high pressure dominating at the surface, although a few more
clouds and gusty winds are possible Fri with passage of an upper
level disturbance over the area.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco/Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion