Mc Cutcheon Field, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS62 KMHX 111847
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build back into the area tonight
through this weekend. By early next week an offshore front will
meander closer to the coast and may bring more unsettled
conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thu...Conditions continue to slowly improve early
this afternoon, however low level moisture and clouds have been
stubborn to erode despite drier high pressure moving in from
the northeast. With further clearing this afternoon, temps
currently in the low to mid 70s should bump up to the upper 70s
to around 80 in most spots. An cluster of light showers over the
northern coastal plain will likely pivot south through the
afternoon and head towards the coast, fueled by steepening
lapse rates and weak troughing.
Tonight, mostly clear and nearly calm conditions are anticipated
as high pressure builds closer. Good radiational cooling may
help produce some patchy fog over the northern coastal plain by
early tomorrow morning, but not expecting anything impactful at
the moment. Lows will range from the upper 50s to low 60s over
the inner coastal plain to the upper 60s to around 70 along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thu...The sun will triumphantly return tomorrow as
high pressure ridges in closer from the northeast. Though below
normal conditions will continue, it will be much warmer than the
past several days with highs in the low to mid 80s inland, and
upper 70s to around 80 along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...
Key Messages
- High pressure leads to drier conditions inland through the
   weekend
- Coastal low pressure development possible mid-next week,
   impacts uncertain at this time
Friday into the weekend, high pressure brings dry conditions to
eastern NC. Aloft, a deep positively tilted trough moves through
the eastern seaboard this weekend. There are some indications
of a weak low forming along the stalled front/coastal trough off
the SE coast late this coming weekend into early next week
thanks to this upper trough. It is too soon to tell what
impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the
timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form. At the
minimum, winds should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened
pressure gradient. This results in a higher degree of
uncertainty for the forecast next week onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday Afternoon/...
 As of 3 PM Thu...
Key Messages
- Slowly improving conditions continue this afternoon with
   conditions improving to MVFR and eventually VFR
Lingering low level ceilings continue to plague ENC early this
afternoon, but conditions will continue to improve the rest of
the day with VFR conditions returning within the next couple of
hours as ceilings scatter out. Drier air will prevail tonight
with mostly clear skies and VFR conditions continuing. Good
radiational cooling overnight will introduce the chance for some
patchy fog across the northern coastal plain region (including
KPGV). Right now this appears to be minimally impactful with
visibilities ranging from 4-6 miles. Soon after sunrise VFR
conditions return for all and will continue the rest of
tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Patchy fog is possible overnight into the
early morning hours through the weekend as clear skies and
light winds inland provide decent radiational cooling
conditions. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions expected through
the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Thu...
Key Messages...
- Small craft conditions continue across most of the coastal
  waters through tomorrow
Winds will continue out of the N/NNE the rest of the day at
15-20 kts with some gusts approaching 25 kts, while seas remain
4-6 ft north of Cape Lookout and 3-5 ft to the south. Tonight
winds and seas will mostly hold steady, but the direction will
turn slightly to the NE. A slightly tighter gradient is expected
tomorrow as high pressure builds closer, and NE winds will
increase to 20-25 kts over the coastal waters with gusts to 30
kts, while along the inland sounds and rivers winds remain 10-20
kts with some gusts to 25 kts. The area of 6 ft seas shifts
southward tomorrow, with 3-5 ft seas developing across the
northern waters.
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...
Key Messages:
-Gusty northerly winds continue through the long term
-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for the weekend
-High uncertainty in the marine forecast for next week
Trough strengthens offshore this weekend, with pressure
gradient tightening as a high builds inland. This increases
winds to around 25 kts and seas to 5-7 ft, resulting in our next
chance of small craft advisory issuance. Early next week, a
weak low may form off the SE coast. This may result in another
round of gusty winds and high seas. However, there is a higher
than normal degree of uncertainty. Winds and waves are highly
dependent on strength, location, and track of low, should it
even develop. As a result, higher than normal level of
uncertainty with the magnitude of the winds at the end of the
long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Thursday...
Higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to produce
elevated waters levels into this weekend along the coast and
tidal waterways from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City. Depending on
tide fluctuations, water levels will likely be 1 to 2 feet above
ground level during periods of high tide. A coastal flood
advisory remains in effect for portions of the Eastern North
Carolina coastline for the higher tides.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
     night for AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion