Mc Fall, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

911
FXUS63 KEAX 010828
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unseasonably warm conditions, upwards of 10-15+ degrees above
  normal continue at least through the weekend, if not into
  early next week.
* Trend toward cooler, more seasonal temperatures by the middle of
  next week.
* Precipitation chances subtly trending up for early next week,
  approaching 30-40% at times overnight Sunday thru Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Captain`s Log, Mid shift 6 of 7. Pattern stagnant. Precipitation
difficult to come by. Temperatures remain warm to hot and
morale falling for those hoping for true fall conditions. While
change on the horizon, that horizon remains days away...
Overall quiet sensible weather conditions continue to prevail over
the larger area, though with broken to overcast skies versus
previous days/nights. This has and will continue to keep
temperatures overnight and early this morning up to a handful of
degrees warmer in many locations versus recent nights. As the parent
open wave primarily deflects N/NW of the area, cloud cover will
continue over much of the area this morning before clearing from SW
to NE. Areas that clear soonest (SW/S), poised to see temperatures
into the upper 80s, while areas the see cloud cover hang on longest
(N/NE) are more in line for a day in the mid 80s.
With Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda gradually drifting eastward,
this will allow the current extremely stagnant pattern to evolve.
Unfortunately (at least for those hoping for immediate change),
trough approaches and digs into western CONUS the remainder of the
week, amplifying a new area of ridging into/across central
CONUS/Plains. All this to say, at least a few more days of the
persistently seasonably warm to hot conditions and nil
precipitation. As this new ridging builds in during latter half of
the week, a small sub-set of guidance suggests the potential for a
few showers to be sparked off near/along a lifting boundary
(mimicking a dry line primarily), but this is anomalous among larger
guidance and too will be needing to overcame already abundantly dry
airmass and at best modest lapse rates. Thus expectation remains for
conditions to remain dry and temperatures as much as 15+ degrees
above normal in the mid to upper 80s. A couple spots touching 90
would not be terribly surprising either.
Through the weekend, that western CONUS trough moves through the
Intermountain West. For the immediate area, that in and of
itself does not significantly alter ongoing mid-upper 80s
temperatures as we remain on the warm side of the
developing/approaching SW flow. The primarily sensible weather
change will be increased southerly winds, even a bit breezy at
times. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in fair
agreement through the weekend, beginning to diverge more so
early next week. And the primary disagreement is the timing and
progression of a cold frontal boundary across the region. This
yields wide spreads in temperatures and precipitation chances
early next week. Suffice it to say for now that temperatures
will regress cooler/toward normal, and there will be at least
some precipitation opportunities early-mid next week. The
pattern too looks to remain on the active side through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. High clouds remain over night with light and variable
winds. Some light BR is possible towards sunrise. Winds
accelerate out of the south after sunrise with some VFR diurnal
CU during the afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion