Mc Farland, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

019
FXUS63 KTOP 221142
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Tuesday. A few
  strong to severe storms are possible.
- Mild and dry conditions likely Wednesday night through the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A complex forecast is taking shape for later today and into
Tuesday. An upper-level trough is developing across the Rockies.
This trough is expected to deepen and slowly move into the
central Plains by Tuesday night. Ahead of the main trough, a
weak mid-level wave and inverted surface trough will develop.
Most models have the mid-level wave and associated lift
remaining to our north in Nebraska as it moves through this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms may make it into far northern
Kansas though. Any thunderstorms during the late afternoon would
have the potential of being strong/severe with 1,500 joules of
ML CAPE and 30 knots of shear. In the wake of this wave, mid-
level height rises are forecast to move into our area, which
should keep a lid on further convective development through at
least the early evening.
Another wave is forecast to push into central Kansas during the
late evening and coincide with a developing low-level jet. Most
CAMs have activity associated with these features remaining
across southern Kansas but even a slight northern deviation in
the track of this wave could lead to a complex of thunderstorms
making it into central Kansas. With an unstable airmass in place
and increasing shear with the developing low-level jet, storms
Monday night into Tuesday morning could be strong to severe with
damaging wind the main threat as a complex of storms is favored
over isolated cells. Monday into Tuesday is the best chance of
precipitation we will have over the next week. Some could see
some stronger storms with wind up to 60 mph and some could see
rainfall amounts around an inch. However, some will only see
lighter showers and amounts of a quarter inch or so. Each
progressive wave and complex of storms will depend largely on
how the prior wave/complex evolves.
As the main trough swings through the Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday, additional showers are possible, but rainfall amounts
would likely be rather light, only a few tenths of an inch.
After the upper-level trough passes we will be in a dry and
mild pattern for the rest of the week as an upper-level ridge
builds in.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog is impacting airports this morning. Have reduced
visibilities in the TAFs until around 15Z, but trends will be
monitored in case timing needs to be adjusted. VFR is expected
once fog dissipates. Chances for rain and storms will then
increase late this evening and especially tonight. Timing of
precipitation at airports remains somewhat uncertain, but will
likely be after 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Teefey

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion