Mc Nary, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS64 KEPZ 202330
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
530 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- We will see lower rain chances today and Sunday with high
   temperatures creeping several degrees above average.
- The warm temperatures continue for the start of the work week,
   but moisture and rain chances return to the forecast as well.
- We will continue to see a chance for showers and thunderstorms
   through the end of the coming week.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Thunderstorms...
Issued at 436 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated thunderstorm development continues to form further south
toward the El Paso metro area. Have expanded the area of potential
rain and thunderstorm development southward to include the El Paso
metro area through 8pm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
After an active couple of weather days, we will see drier air work
into the region which will reduce, but not eliminate our rain
chances for today and Sunday. High temperatures today will run a
degree or two above average and closer to 5 degrees above average
on Sunday. The reason for the drier air and warmer temperatures is
our old friend the upper level ridge. The ridge is currently
centered in northern Mexico and the circulation along the north
side of the ridge is pulling drier air into the area. Precipitable
water values (PW`s) have been running well above an inch the last
couple of days, even this morning`s PW value from the 12Z balloon
run was 1.34. But by this afternoon our PW values will drop below
one inch and when you are below an inch it is a lot harder to get
thunderstorms started.
For next week, the models are in a bit of a transition. Previous
model runs had things basically warm and dry, but all the models
have begun trending cooler and wetter for much of next week. For
Monday and Tuesday the upper level ridge to our south looks to
keep us warm and dry, but an upper level trough near the
California coast begins to push moisture in our direction and at
the same time the ridge aloft begins to weaken which allows
moisture to sneak up from the south. Most of us will stay dry on
Monday and Tuesday, but some low end rain chances return to the
forecast mainly west of the Rio Grande.
As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, we begin to see a classic
omega block weather pattern developing across the U.S. The omega
block is characterized by closed low upper level troughs east and
west of an upper level ridge in the middle. When viewed on a
weather map, the upper level pattern takes on the shape of the
Greek letter omega, hence the name. This is a blocking or slow to
change weather pattern, so if you are under the ridge part of the
pattern, you can expect several days of sunny warm weather. But
if you are near one of the two upper level troughs, you will have
several days of unsettled weather. For our region, we will be very
near the western upper level trough for much of next week. At the
same time on Wednesday, we will see a back door cold front push
moisture into the low levels of the region from the east. Having
said all this, things are looking more active for the middle and
end of next week. If this trend holds, we will need to continue to
increase our rain chances and decrease our high temperatures a
few degrees. We have lots of activities across the region next
week especially toward the end of the week, so stay tuned as we
continue to adjust next weeks forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated thunderstorm redevelopment continues in the region near
KLRU and KELP. Storms are expected to dissipate by 02z this
evening. Afterwards, VFR conditions expected for the next 20
hours, with isolated thunderstorm development occurring after 22Z
Sunday afternoon. Drier air pushing into the area is limiting
thunderstorms development but not completely eliminating it.
today. Winds away from thunderstorms tonight and Sunday will be
light (less than 10 knots) and out of the west or southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Quiet fire weather conditions for the next 5 days. We will see
lower rain chances today and Sunday with min RH`s both days
ranging from 20 to 30% in the lowlands to 40 to 50% in area
mountains. For the first of next week, the models are beginning to
trend to a more active forecast with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day through the end of the week. Min RH`s next
week look to stay at or above 30% for the entire area. Winds this
weekend and next week will stay well below critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  94  71  94 /  20   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            61  87  61  90 /  20   0   0  10
Las Cruces               62  90  64  90 /  20   0  10  20
Alamogordo               62  90  64  91 /  10   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               47  67  48  69 /  10   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences    62  88  64  89 /  10  10  10  30
Silver City              56  83  59  83 /  10  10  10  40
Deming                   61  92  64  92 /  10   0  10  20
Lordsburg                63  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  30
West El Paso Metro       69  91  69  92 /  20   0  10  10
Dell City                61  92  61  94 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             67  93  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
Loma Linda               62  85  64  86 /  20   0   0  10
Fabens                   66  92  66  94 /  20   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             64  90  66  91 /  20   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           66  90  67  92 /  20   0  10  20
Jornada Range            61  88  64  91 /  20   0  10  20
Hatch                    61  92  63  93 /  10   0  10  20
Columbus                 63  91  66  91 /  10   0  10  10
Orogrande                61  88  62  90 /  10   0   0  10
Mayhill                  53  80  54  81 /  10   0   0  20
Mescalero                51  79  53  81 /  10   0   0  20
Timberon                 51  77  52  78 /  10   0   0  20
Winston                  50  82  53  81 /  10  10  10  40
Hillsboro                59  89  61  89 /  10  10  10  30
Spaceport                58  87  61  89 /  10   0  10  30
Lake Roberts             51  83  53  83 /  10  10  10  50
Hurley                   57  86  60  85 /   0  10  10  30
Cliff                    58  89  61  89 /  10  10  10  40
Mule Creek               56  85  59  84 /  10  10  10  40
Faywood                  58  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  30
Animas                   63  89  64  89 /  10  10  10  30
Hachita                  61  88  63  89 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           62  89  64  89 /  20  10  10  30
Cloverdale               61  85  61  84 /  20  20  10  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion