Medora, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

185
FXUS63 KICT 181946
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry Friday with storm chances returning Friday night into
  Saturday morning and again for Saturday night into Sunday.
- Cooler and unsettled pattern for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Currently have a compact upper impulse lifting into southern
Nebraska with another circulation spinning over northern MT. At
the surface, cold front stretches from southeast KS, through
eastern OK and into central TX.
Showers and storms associated with departing upper impulse have
been steadily pushing east and northeast today. A few
showers/storms may linger across southeast KS into the Flint
Hills early this evening with the bulk of the area remaining
dry tonight. By 12z Fri, upper low will be located over central
SD with a brief period of northwest flow over the forecast area.
Models still agree on tracking a weak upper perturbation out of
the central/southern Rockies and out into the High Plains by Sat
morning. Storms are expected to develop after 21z Fri over
southwest Nebraska and track southeast through the evening
hours. This activity may continue pushing southeast into our
northwest fringes Fri evening as 850mb theta-e advection quickly
increases. Would also expect additional development Fri night
over central KS as 850-700mb moisture transport continues to
increase ahead of the approaching wave. Large hail up to quarter
size looks likely with the stronger storms Fri night into Sat
morning given impressive 850-500mb directional shear. This
activity is expected to quickly slide southeast and should exit
the forecast area by the afternoon hours.
Another round of storms is expected for early Sat evening
through Sun morning as the upper wave slides across southern
KS. In addition we will maintain an area of 850-700mb moisture
transport Sat night with some better elevated instability. So
some strong to potentially low end severe storms once again
appears possible. Beyond the Sun night time frame, confidence in
precip drops off significantly. The 12z GFS run from yesterday
was forecasting a closed upper low to be positioned over
SD/northern Nebraska by Mon evening, with today`s 12z run
having this same feature over the Great Basin. The ECMWF is
somewhat more consistent but is still having run to run
consistency issues. For now will keep some small rain chances in
for Mon, but better chances look to arrive for Tue and Wed as
the upper wave starts to directly impact the area. After Mon,
will also run with below normal temps for Tue-Thu with highs in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will continue moving to the
east throughout the afternoon. Could see a bit of development on the
back side of this feature later this afternoon in central KS, so
decided to introduce a TEMPO for -SHRA at SLN at this time.
Light and variable winds are anticipated to commence at all sites
after 00Z. Short-range ensembles indicate solid chances for MVFR
visibilities in central KS around sunrise due to low temp/dew
spread. As such, also decided to introduce a TEMPO group at SLN
around 10-13Z to highlight this. Could see expansion to other sites,
but confidence is too low for more mentions at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion