Melvin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS64 KSJT 081746
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
-  A few showers and isolated storms are possible this afternoon
   along the I-10 corridor, with dry conditions returning by
   Tuesday.
-  Sunny and warm conditions expected for Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The HRRR and other short range models continue to show some very
isolated rain showers developing down near I-10 this afternoon.
However, the coverage is very low. Overall, the models are
trending lower and lower on any expected rain for the remainder of
today. As such, some very low (20%) PoPs are reasonable across
the southern portions of our area. Most locations will remain dry,
however.
For tomorrow, high pressure builds across the region resulting in
warming temperatures. Highs will return to the upper 80s and
middle 90s. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will leave
relatively quiet weather in place for tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A fairly benign pattern is in store for Wednesday through Friday
across west central Texas. A 591dam upper-level ridge looks to set
up across the southern Plains Tuesday night and persist through
Friday night.  An area of surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley
should result in a light, but steady, southeasterly flow of moist
air into west central Texas. Model consensus shows 850mb
temperatures of 19-23 deg C, which should allow high temperatures
each day to reach the mid 90s across the Big Country and low 90s for
the Concho Valley and southward.  Dewpoint temperatures in the 60s
each morning will mix out to the low to mid 50s each afternoon,
which should keep the heat index down.  Overnight lows look to be in
the low to mid 60s Wednesday night and warm up to the upper 60s to
around 70 by Friday night.  For this weekend, models show the ridge
starting to break down with the approach of an upper-level trough
over the western US.  As this trough evolves, it should move into
the northern and central Plains and have little, if any, effect on
temperatures in west central Texas.  However, as the ridge starts to
break down, there is a low chance for some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in the our southern counties on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
ASOS observations across the region show MVFR conditions across
KJCT and KBBD. These conditions are likely to continue for a few
more hours this afternoon. Then, all of the terminals should
scatter out for this afternoon. An isolated, stray rain shower is
still possible across the I-10 corridor. However, chances are low
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NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion