Menan, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

358
FXUS65 KPIH 251051
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
451 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will keep afternoon temperatures warmer than
  normal through Monday, low temperatures at or above normal.
- Light showers possible in the southeast highlands late
  tonight.
- Better chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
  arrives in the southern highlands on Sunday afternoon, the
  rest on Monday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High pressure is weakening during the evening tonight. This will
allow some moisture into the ID-UT border region and may trigger
some light showers late tonight in the southeast highlands. The
upper level wind will be shifting to a southerly to
southwesterly direction with the approach of the 500mb trough
from the west. The wind aloft will strengthen and so wind will
not be as variable as it has been for the last week. The
approach of the trough will also mean more cloudiness and cooler
temperatures starting Fri. The precipitation takes a break on
Fri and Sat, with the sunnier skies allowing temperatures to
warm up again for Sat by 2 to 3 deg F from Fri temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The slowly advancing upper left will arrive on Mon, so expect
cooler temperatures, more clouds, and finally some
precipitation. The first precipitation threat arrives Sun
afternoon, in the southern highlands, then spreads northward for
Mon afternoon as this trough actually swings through. This makes
temperatures cool to below normal for Tue and Wed, by 5 to 10
deg on Wed afternoon. Wind does not strengthen to significant
levels, but the shower and thunderstorm threat does rise to the
chance category, and likely for the mountain showers, on Tue.
Precipitation and thunder risk decreases for Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 444 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High pressure will keep CIGs away during the day and evening
hours, but a weak shortwave will move through the mean south
southwest upper level flow and bring some clouds in the mid-
level altitudes. This should develop a CIG sometime around or
shortly after 26/06Z at KBYI and KPIH, but it will be in the
range of FL100-120, so no impact to flight operations. VSBY
should stay widespread P6SM, although there have been
occurrences of around 5SM in HZ/FG. Wind should increase some
for the afternoon hours, with 8KT to 10KT during the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Warmest temperatures and dries afternoon humidity arrives today,
then an approaching low will bring clouds, cooler temperatures,
higher humidity, and breezier conditions starting Fri. The
trough arrives on Mon afternoon, which is when the next risk of
thunderstorms arrives and continues into at least Wed.
There is a slight risk of some late night showers in the
southeastern highlands tonight, then there is a break for Fri
and Sat. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Tue behind
this low. Shower and thunderstorm threat also drops starting
Wed. Humidity will remain high starting Mon.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion