Mentmore, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS65 KABQ 191101 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
501 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor western and central parts of the
  state today.
- There will be a high risk for burn scar flash flooding over the
  Ruidoso Friday.
- Lower forecast confidence beyond this weekend, with the
  potential for atmospheric moisture to trend down further and
  the 2025 North American Monsoon to diminish.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The former remnants of tropical storm Mario have merged with an
eastern Pacific trough low that is moving into northern CA,
dragging a deep and vast flux of subtropical moisture into AZ and
southwestern NM. The CA trough has a notable spoke of vorticity
extending southeastward, and this wave is currently crossing the
Mogollon Rim currently and poised to enter western to central NM
through this afternoon. Batches of showers and weak storms are
already developing in AZ and will be feeding int western NM
through the morning. PWATs will rise to a 0.8 to 1.1 inch range
this afternoon across most of the forecast area. Instability is
not projected to be overly high with lots of mid to high clouds in
place, but the incoming large scale forcing is modeled to initiate
scattered to numerous storms across western and central NM.
Eastward moving storms at 10-20 mph will create heavy downpours
with a low, but present, incidence of flash flooding. This will
also include the Ruidoso wildfire burn scars, and a Flash Flood
Watch has already been issued for there for today. Showers and
storms will fall victim to downsloping as they move eastward into
the plains, and minimal activity is projected to make it to the
eastern NM border before midnight. Most cells will have dissipated
by midnight, but a few outflow collisions and convectively
initiated perturbations may keep spotty showers and storms
surviving into the early morning hours Saturday.
With the high staying just inland over MX and east of the Gulf of
CA, the westerlies will persist on Saturday over NM with
plummeting PWATs (values dropping to 0.4 to 0.75 inch). This and
the absence of any perturbations aloft will significantly limit
the coverage of storms Saturday afternoon. There will be another
front that approaches the northeast corner of NM with moisture
convergence setting off a few storms, but otherwise diurnal
heating over the mountains will be the primary convective
mechanism Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonable Saturday,
gaining a couple to a few degrees above today`s readings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The ridge will stay south of NM into Sunday while a weak cut-off
low remains offshore of CA. Dry westerly flow will persist with
minimal POPs due to such isolated coverage of storms that will
initiate over the high terrain Sunday afternoon.
Both the offshore cut-off low and the ridge to our south will
begin to nudge eastward Sunday night into Monday. This could
start to draw up subtropical moisture between the features, a
substantial change from previous model runs that would quickly
reintroduce more appreciable POPs to western and central zones of
NM. By this time Monday, another upper low is also projected to
drop southeastward out of the northern Rockies with deterministic
solutions struggling to pinpoint the track of this. The potential
late season monsoon plume from Monday would have a fate determined
by the interaction of this northern Rockies low or the
northwesterly flow that it induces over northeastern NM, and the
cut-off low offshore of CA would certainly play a role as well.
Scattered POPs have been introduced over western and northern
mountain zones for Monday, but look for an increase if this rogue
monsoon plume materializes.
The western cut-off low is progged to move toward the CA coast
Tuesday before continuing inland on Wednesday, and there is
generally good consensus among deterministic members and ensemble
means with this feature. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday the
placement, strength, and orientation of the former northern
Rockies low has a large spread of solutions persuading its course.
It does appear the low would cut off from the polar jet,
potentially setting up a blocking pattern with two cut-off lows
across the ConUS. This would introduce an even higher uncertainty
to the forecast, as models notoriously struggle with these cut-off
low features, especially as we approach seasonal transition
periods. For now, isolated POPs have been left in the forecast for
Tuesday and Wednesday per the NBM, but these too could increase
if the monsoon plume comes to fruition Monday and sustains itself
into mid week.
The GEFS ensemble mean and operational GFS are more inclined to
bring the western ConUS low north of the Four Corners by Thursday,
but the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are not as quick, keeping a
faint ridge axis over NM which might be better at retaining any
monsoon moisture present over NM. For now, just isolated POPs have
been left in the high terrain zones for Thursday with very low
confidence in the details.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Low stratus clouds are lingering over the northeastern part of
New Mexico this morning with scattered MVFR ceilings expected
through the post-dawn hours over and just east of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains (KAXX and KRTN). Showers and a few weaker
thunderstorms will continue to enter southwestern New Mexico
through dawn. These will then shift farther northeast, impacting
KGUP and KGNT through the late morning. By the afternoon, much
deeper moisture and an upper level disturbance will be entering
western New Mexico with numerous and more vigorous thunderstorms
expected. These will push eastward into the Rio Grande valley by
the mid to late afternoon, eventually overtaking the central
mountain chain of the state. Storms will then carry on eastward
into some of the eastern plains by this evening, but will begin to
quickly reduce and fall apart as they try to make their way to
the eastern New Mexico border. Heavy downpours and gusty downburst
winds will accompany the stronger storms along with brief
reductions to ceilings and visibility.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A stormy day will be on hand today, especially for western and
central New Mexico as deep subtropical moisture and an upper level
disturbance arrive. This will increase wetting rainfall chances
for many western and central zones (except close to the NM-CO
border) with storms having more difficulty making it into the far
eastern plains of the state. The increased moisture and ongoing
rainfall will boost daytime humidity and keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler today, and good to excellent humidity recovery is
anticipated for tonight through dawn Saturday (RH values climbing
to 80-100% in all zones). Storms will be much more sparse and
subdued on Saturday and Sunday with just isolated cells developing
over the high terrain areas and also in the far northeast corner
of New Mexico where a weak front will stall. Afternoon humidity
will start to lower on Saturday, but even more-so into Sunday
when many zones will fall to 15-25%.
A dry start was forecast for the first half of the new upcoming
work week, but a significant wrinkle is starting to be advertised
by models. This wrinkle comes in the form of a better monsoon
moisture intrusion which could reintroduce more storms, primarily
over the western and central high terrain zones Monday, Tuesday,
and Wednesday. However, nearby upper level low pressure systems
will be wandering to our west and northeast, wreaking havoc on the
forecast and introducing high uncertainty to the rainfall
forecast next week. For now, rain chances have increased for
western and central areas on Monday, but these may extend into
subsequent days if current model trends hold. Afternoon humidity
values for Monday through Thursday of next week will likely remain
a bit more elevated than previous forecasts, as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  55  81  53 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  41  77  39 /  30  20  10   0
Cuba............................  74  46  76  47 /  70  20   5   0
Gallup..........................  76  47  79  45 /  70  40   0   0
El Morro........................  73  47  75  47 /  80  40   5   0
Grants..........................  76  47  79  46 /  80  30   5   0
Quemado.........................  74  48  77  48 /  90  40  10   5
Magdalena.......................  74  52  77  54 /  80  50  20   5
Datil...........................  71  47  75  48 /  90  50  20   5
Reserve.........................  79  48  83  48 /  80  40  10   5
Glenwood........................  84  54  87  54 /  80  30  10   5
Chama...........................  69  41  71  40 /  40  20  30   0
Los Alamos......................  71  50  74  52 /  50  30  10   0
Pecos...........................  75  48  76  49 /  30  30   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  73  46  74  45 /  30  20  20   0
Red River.......................  64  39  64  38 /  30  20  20   0
Angel Fire......................  69  34  69  29 /  30  20  20   0
Taos............................  75  44  76  43 /  30  20  10   0
Mora............................  72  45  73  44 /  30  20  10   0
Espanola........................  78  50  81  49 /  40  20   5   0
Santa Fe........................  75  51  76  53 /  30  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  50  79  50 /  30  20   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  58  81  60 /  60  30   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  55  84  57 /  60  30   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  55  86  56 /  60  30   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  56  84  57 /  60  30   0   0
Belen...........................  83  53  85  54 /  60  40   5   0
Bernalillo......................  82  55  85  56 /  50  30   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  52  84  53 /  60  30   5   0
Corrales........................  83  55  86  56 /  60  30   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  82  54  84  55 /  60  30   5   0
Placitas........................  79  54  80  56 /  60  30   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  81  55  84  56 /  60  30   0   0
Socorro.........................  83  57  86  58 /  70  50  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  50  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
Tijeras.........................  76  52  77  53 /  60  30   5   0
Edgewood........................  76  47  78  48 /  60  30   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  45  79  45 /  60  30   5   0
Clines Corners..................  74  49  75  50 /  50  30   5   0
Mountainair.....................  76  50  78  50 /  60  40  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  50  78  50 /  60  40  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  55  80  57 /  60  50  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  70  52  74  53 /  70  50  20   5
Capulin.........................  75  48  74  47 /   5  10  20  10
Raton...........................  78  47  78  46 /   5  10  20  10
Springer........................  80  47  81  46 /  10  10   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  75  47  77  48 /  20  30   5   0
Clayton.........................  82  56  80  55 /   0   5  20  10
Roy.............................  78  51  80  50 /   5  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  84  57  87  55 /   5  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  81  55  84  54 /  10  30   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  83  57  85  55 /   0  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  85  60  88  60 /  10  10   5   5
Portales........................  86  61  88  61 /  10  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  84  58  88  58 /  10  20   5   0
Roswell.........................  86  62  90  61 /  30  20   5   0
Picacho.........................  80  55  85  57 /  50  40  10   0
Elk.............................  76  52  81  54 /  70  50  20   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion