Merry Hill, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

230
FXUS61 KAKQ 141051
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England early this week with dry and
mild conditions today through at least early Monday. Confidence
continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the region late
Monday through mid-week, bringing widespread rain, cooler
temperatures, and breezy conditions. A warmup is expected by late
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly cloudy and cool early this morning, with patchy fog possible
  over the MD Lower Eastern Shore.
- Mild today with highs in the low to mid 80s for most.
Latest analysis depicted high pressure over Ontario, with surface
ridging extending down the east coast across the local area.
Meanwhile, a quasi- stationary front remains draped off the
Southeast Coast over the Gulf Stream this morning. The front is
oriented beneath a mid-level trough, which extends down the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast Coast. A weak area of low pressure has
developed along the front and will continue to drift NNW offshore of
the coastal Carolinas through the day. The trough to the south is
responsible for upper level cloudiness across the SE half of the FA
this morning. These clouds will continue to gradually expand across
the area today. Meanwhile, additional mid-level clouds associated
with a weak shortwave continue to move in from the NW.
Temps as of 650 AM ranged from the mid 50 to around 60F inland
with mid-upper 60s along the coast. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies continue through the day with fewer clouds NW and more
clouds SE. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s NW to the upper 70s to
around 80F SE are expected. Clouds linger through tonight with
lows around 60F inland and upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
  the region from late Monday through mid-week with widespread
  rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy winds possible.
- Locally heavy rain is possible on Tuesday across eastern
  portions of the area with rainfall totals of 2-3"+ possible.
Aloft, a tall ridge continues to build into Canada early this week,
orienting SW to NE through mid-week. This creates an upper level
cutoff low across the Southeast Mon which slowly moves north into
the local area Tue. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure
builds SE into New England early this week, ridging into the local
area. Meanwhile, a coastal low off the Southeast coast slowly lifts
north along the coast through mid-week. Models continue to differ
with respect to the exact track of the low with several models
taking the low inland in a NW track into NC and VA Mon night into
Tue whereas others keep a more N track. However, given the upper
level cutoff low positioned over inland portions of the region, the
model solutions favoring a curve to the NW with the surface low,
becoming more vertically stacked underneath the cutoff low make more
sense. As such, confidence continues to increase in widespread
impacts from the coastal low from late Mon through mid-week with
widespread rain likely along with breezy winds, particularly along
the coast.
The NBM continues to increase with PoPs and now has 25-45% PoPs
across SE VA/NE NC late Mon afternoon, increasing to 50-60% Mon
night and 55-70% Tue into Tue night. The GFS/GEFS had been the
outlier showing lower QPF compared to other models/ensembles.
However, the 00z GEFS has increased to 0.5-0.75" W of I-95 and 1-
1.5" across eastern portions of the FA. This (while a large increase
from the 12z GEFS) is still lower than the EPS which now shows a
widespread 1-1.5" across the NW half of the area and 1.5-2" across
the SE half of the area. As such, the NBM QPF seems reasonable with
~1" across the far NW portion of the FA, 1-1.5" across most of the
area, and a corridor of 2-3" across SE VA/NE NC. Will also note that
the deterministic Euro and GFS now both show the potential for
localized totals of 3-4" across SE VA/NE NC. As such, WPC has added
a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern VA and NE NC
on Tue. Will also note that there now appears to be at least a low-
end chance for some embedded thunderstorms across mainly SE VA/NE NC
Mon night into Tue due to an enhanced area of FGEN north of the low.
Additionally, gusty NE winds are expected, especially along the
coast, Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient between the high to the
north and the coastal low tightens. Gusts up to ~20 mph inland and
~35 mph along the coast are possible. Given the increased confidence
in widespread rainfall, temps have also trended cooler on Tue with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most (mid 70s across far SE
VA/NE NC). If these trends continue, would not be surprised if many
inland areas do not see highs above the 60s on Tue and Wed. See
climate section below for more information. Highs will be warmer on
Mon with temps around 80F NW to the mid 70s SE expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering impacts from a coastal low are likely on Wednesday
  with additional rain and cooler weather expected.
- A warmup is expected by late week with cooler weather
  returning next Sunday.
The upper level low washes out across the region Wed into Thu with
the coastal low weakening as it lifts N. However, widespread light
to moderate rain likely continues into Wed with 40-65% PoPs. This
will allow for cooler temps once again with many inland areas
struggling to get out of the 60s. Highs across eastern portions of
the area in the mid 70s are possible. Rainfall rates and totals are
not expected to be as high Wed as Tue with additional rainfall
totals of 0.25-0.5" expected across most of the area. Clouds linger
into Thu with some clearing skies possible in the late afternoon. As
such, highs are expected to be warmer on Thu with temps in the upper
70s for most (locally around 80F). The upper level ridge moves into
the East Coast Fri into Sat with a warmup expected (highs in the mid
80s Fri and low-mid 80s Sat). A trough moves into the region next
Sun with CAD potentially developing as high pressure slides off the
New England coast. As such, cooler weather (highs in the mid 70s) is
possible.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...
Generally VFR conditions continue through the 12z TAF period
across the terminals. SCT- BKN cirrus continue to push inland
this morning. As such, expect partly sunny skies NW and mostly
cloudy skies SE through the day. Cloud cover lingers through
tonight. Winds become NE 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt across SE
VA/NE NC later this morning into this afternoon with gusts
around 20 kt possible. The strongest winds look to be at ECG
where 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt are possible this
afternoon.
Outlook: A coastal low approaches Mon through midweek, leading
to an increase in clouds, widespread rain, and an increasing
chance for reduced CIGs and VIS across all area terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs have been issued for all marine zones except for the
  upper rivers from Monday through Tuesday for 20-25 kt NE
  winds and elevated seas. SCAs remain in effect starting today
  for the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound.
- A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches
  through Tuesday with a Moderate Rip Risk across the northern
  beaches through Monday. The rip risk increases to high across
  the northern beaches on Tuesday.
- A period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out
  across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and lower Chesapeake
  Bay from Monday night-Tuesday.
High pressure is in place across eastern North America with a weak
surface low off the SE CONUS coast. The gradient between these
features is allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC
coastal waters, with 5-10 kt winds over the rest of the marine area.
Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. The weak low off the SE coast drifts
N through early this aftn allowing for the NE wind to increase,
primarily S of Cape Charles. This will allow for seas to remain
elevated (5-6 ft) off the Currituck Outer Banks, and build to 4-5 ft
off VA Beach (so SCAs remain in effect starting now). Additionally,
a 15-20 kt NE wind is expected across the Currituck Sound today, so
SCAs remain in effect starting now there as well. The pressure
gradient may slacken to some extent later today into tonight, before
tightening once again late tonight.
Marine conditions deteriorate from south to north on Monday and
especially Monday night as the weak low off the Carolina coast
deepens and lifts north along the coast or just offshore. While
models showed a much weaker (and offshore) low yesterday...the
12/00z suites of guidance have sharply trended towards a stronger
low close to the coast. SCAs have been issued for all marine zones
except the upper rivers starting Monday. All headlines are in effect
through Tuesday evening for now. Winds likely increase to SCA
criteria by morning/midday Monday across the lower bay/lower James
and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Winds increase further Monday night
as the pressure gradient tightens due to the approaching low. Peak
winds will likely occur Monday night into Tuesday (NE around 25 kt
with gusts to 25-35 kt). There is the potential for a period of low-
end gale force gusts across the SE VA/NC coastal waters and lower
bay from Monday night-Tuesday, but this will depend on the exact
strength/track of the low. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor as
local wind probs for 34+ kt wind gusts have increased to 25-45%
across these areas. Gale Watches may be needed for a portion of the
area if things continue to trend upward.
Winds gradually decrease from south to north from Tuesday night-
Wednesday as the low tracks over the marine area (resulting in a
slackening pressure gradient). Sub-SCA winds are then expected late
this week. With the increasing NE winds, seas will build to 7-9 ft
by Mon night/Tue with 3-5 ft waves on the bay (potentially 6 ft at
the mouth of the bay). High Surf Advisories may be needed for VA
Beach and the NE NC Outer Banks. The high rip risk will continue for
the southern beaches through at least Tuesday. The rip risk is
moderate across the northern beaches from today-Mon, increasing to
high on Tue.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
With the increasing NE winds and building seas Mon night-Tue,
tidal anomalies across the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast are
expected increase by 1-1.5 ft. Anomalies across the upper bay
won`t increase as much. This will likely result in another round
of minor tidal flooding across the tidal York/James,
Middle/Lower Bay, and SE VA/NE NC coast. ETSS shows solid to
high-end minor flooding across these locations, with peak water
levels occurring during the Tuesday evening high tide cycle.
There is some potential for localized moderate flooding at
Jamestown/Lynnhaven, with the 4.5 ft MLLW threshold falling
between the 50th and 90th percentiles in the NAEFS based P-ETSS.
Have noted that forecast peak water levels from the
deterministic ETSS Tuesday evening generally fall just under the
50th percentile from the NAEFS based P-ETSS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ632-634-638-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion