Mesquite, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS64 KEPZ 181845
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1245 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday, favoring
   northern and western areas with a low threat of heavy rainfall.
- Moisture levels trend down for the weekend, allowing for lower
   storm chances into next week.
- Temperatures remain near normal for the rest of the week with a
   warm-up into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A tropical airmass associated with the remnants of TS Mario will
continue to spread into the region from the southwest through Friday
with embedded shortwaves/MCVs to trigger convection. PWs will be
well above normal in the short-term, reaching 1.2-1.3" for EPZ,
which is above the 90th percentile for mid September. This will
allow for efficient rain producers and potential for flash flooding
through Friday evening. WPC still has most of the CWA in a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall both days, excluding Hudspeth county
where moisture content is lowest. A weak shortwave crosses through
NM on Friday around the top of the ridge, allowing for faster storm
motions, somewhat lessening the flash flood threat. Western areas
and higher terrain are most favored to see heavy rainfall with
Friday being more impactful compared to Thursday. Isolated spots
could see 2-3" of rain according to HREF max 24-hr totals.
Moisture levels decrease this weekend as the upper high shifts to
the west, bringing in drier, northwesterly air. Enough leftover
moisture will be available on Saturday to give the mountains low-end
PoPs, otherwise, dry conditions are expected. Early next week, an
upper low is modeled to cut off west of Baja, but should be too far
away to produce any impacts for us. The 12z GFS seems to be the
outlier with its further east placement of the low, allowing deeper
moisture to reach western areas. The most likely scenario is some
higher-level moisture brings some cloud cover to the west, but not
much if any rain chances Sun/Mon.
After Monday, upper ridging strengthens over the Four Corners region
from the south, allowing for warm, dry conditions to prevail for the
rest of the period. Storm chances will be near zero, including the
mountains. Temperatures remain near normal for the rest of the week,
then warming under the influence of the upper high.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Isolated to scattered TS develop this afternoon near all
terminals, most likely for KELP and KLRU. Clouds over KDMN may
limit convection this afternoon. Radar trends will be monitored
for possible amendments. Storms are capable of producing heavy
rainfall and gusty outflows to 30kts. Shower activity lingers
overnight around KELP before dissipating for the AM. Outside of
outflows, winds will be AOB 10kts mainly from SE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Abundant moisture will result in continued storm chances through
Friday with potential for heavy rainfall, especially in northern
and western areas. Drier air moves in during the weekend, lowering
storm chances into next week. Low storm chances linger for area
mtns on Saturday due to leftover moisture. Outside of gusty and
erratic outflows, winds will be light into next week. Overnight
recoveries stay very good to excellent into the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the week, then a
few degrees above average.
Min RHs range from 30-50% through Sat, then 20-35%; 50-75% for the
Sacs through Fri, then 30-50%. Vent rates will be poor to good
through Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  90  68  92 /  30  30  50  10
Sierra Blanca            60  86  61  87 /  20  30  30  10
Las Cruces               63  84  61  87 /  40  40  50  10
Alamogordo               63  86  61  86 /  30  60  50  10
Cloudcroft               45  62  45  65 /  20  70  50  20
Truth or Consequences    62  81  60  85 /  40  70  40  10
Silver City              58  77  56  81 /  50  70  40  20
Deming                   63  86  62  89 /  40  50  40  10
Lordsburg                63  84  63  85 /  50  60  30  10
West El Paso Metro       69  88  68  89 /  30  20  50  10
Dell City                63  88  63  89 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Hancock             68  92  68  92 /  20  30  30  10
Loma Linda               62  82  61  82 /  30  30  40  10
Fabens                   67  90  66  90 /  20  20  40  10
Santa Teresa             66  87  65  87 /  30  30  40  10
White Sands HQ           65  86  64  87 /  40  50  50  10
Jornada Range            63  84  61  85 /  40  60  50  10
Hatch                    63  87  61  88 /  40  60  50  10
Columbus                 65  87  65  89 /  40  30  40  10
Orogrande                63  84  60  84 /  30  50  50  10
Mayhill                  50  72  51  76 /  20  70  40  30
Mescalero                50  74  50  76 /  20  70  50  20
Timberon                 50  71  49  74 /  30  60  50  20
Winston                  51  74  49  79 /  40  80  40  20
Hillsboro                58  82  57  85 /  40  70  50  20
Spaceport                61  82  58  84 /  40  70  50  10
Lake Roberts             53  77  51  82 /  50  80  40  30
Hurley                   58  79  57  83 /  50  60  40  20
Cliff                    60  83  59  87 /  50  70  30  20
Mule Creek               57  79  57  83 /  50  70  30  20
Faywood                  60  79  58  83 /  50  60  40  20
Animas                   63  84  63  87 /  40  60  30  10
Hachita                  62  84  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
Antelope Wells           62  84  62  87 /  30  40  30  10
Cloverdale               60  81  59  82 /  40  60  30  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion