Millbrook, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

654
FXUS64 KBMX 271742
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
- Cooler today. Back to above normal temperatures Sunday through
   Tuesday.
- Medium chance for areas of patchy dense fog across the east
   half of Central Alabama through early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Now that the cold front has moved through the region, quiet weather
is expected for most of this short-term forecast period. There is at
least a low end (10%) chance of a wrap around shower during the
afternoon hours on Sunday, but for the most part it looks like dry
air will win the battle.
Lows tonight and tomorrow will range in the upper-50s and low-60s,
with afternoon highs on Sunday climbing back into the mid to upper-
80s.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
This is why it pays to not write off the "outlier" scenario.
If you closely follow the weather, you may have seen the guidance
runs a few days ago bringing now Tropical Depression 9 all the up to
the South Carolina coast, it slamming on the brakes, and then
scooting out to sea. Completely avoiding a landfall of any kind. At
the time, only a handful of models showed this possibility, so it
was kind of easy to look at it and go, "Haha that`s funny. No way
this would happen." Well now, this funny solution is the consensus,
but not without good meteorological reason.
The last few days, the center for TD9 has remained in mostly the
same spot, where Hurricane Humberto has slowly been drifting west.
This trend will continue the next few days, right up until Humberto
gets tossed out into the Atlantic by a trough over the Northeast.
Due to the eventual proximity to TD9, friction will take over, and
the Fujiwhara Effect will pull TD9 out to sea as well.
Because of this, locally we`ve gone from looking at that nice
drought busting rain we need, to only scattered rain chances in the
forecast. There is a chance a vort max gets pulled off TD9, and
works its way into the region, but that would still only result in
pockets of better rainfall amounts. Thankfully, it does look like
TD9 will pull down some cooler temperatures into next weekend, so at
least we`ll have that to look forward to. Otherwise, the forecast
remains mostly dry, with afternoon highs ranging in the 80s into
Friday.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Organized rain chances remain dependent on the tropics, with rain
chances currently remaining limited in the forecast. MinRH values
will generally be split East/West, with low-40s West, and low-50s
East. However, MinRH values could climb by Thursday, as moisture
begins to stream back into the region. Otherwise, look for drought
conditions to persist, and continue for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    63  86  65  84 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  64  88  66  87 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  65  90  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      64  89  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      65  86  67  83 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  65  88  67  86 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        64  87  65  84 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion