Millersview, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

807
FXUS64 KSJT 231111
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures on Tuesday, with highs at or above 100 degrees
  across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
  afternoon into Wednesday. A few of these storms could be strong
  to severe on this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Localized severe weather is possible tonight with minor flooding
possible across much of west central Texas tonight and Wednesday.
At the synoptic level, upper level west-northwest flow(a few
disturbances) and a warm sector will play a role in intense
convection developing this afternoon from Arkansas, Oklahoma down
into north Texas. The most significant severe weather will be
well to our northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
near triple point low pressure system. Less intense for our area
along southward moving outflow boundary late this afternoon and
evening. However, moderate instability and good vertical wind
shear may lead to the first few storms being supercells(mainly Big
Country and Concho Valley) with all severe hazards in play(large
hail, damaging winds possibly a brief tornado or two). Make sure
you have a severe weather plan in play and have many ways to
receive warnings. Round 1 of thunderstorms will decrease by late
this evening then next round will develop due to mid to upper
level lift late tonight and Wednesday morning across the southern
2/3 of our area. Look for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash
flooding and a few marginal severe storms, mainly damaging winds.
Most of the activity will end Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise, look for hot temperatures today then much cooler
weather for Wednesday. Highs today will be in the 90s to around
100. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s(cold
front south of our area) thanks to rainfall and low clouds
hanging around for much of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Surface high pressure builds in behind the front on Thursday,
Dry and cool weather expected, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Surface high shifts east of the area on Friday, with south winds
returning in advance of an upper level low that moves into
southern California. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected
over the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The
aforementioned upper low is expected to track slowly towards the
area this weekend into early next week. This could bring a low
chance for precipitation mainly to southwest sections Saturday
through Monday, but model confidence remains low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours at the terminals. The
Hi-Res models are indicating scattered thunderstorms developing
across mainly the Big Country and Concho Valley late Tuesday
afternoon and early evening due to moderate instability and some
wind shear. Have added a PROB30 for thunder at the KABI/KSJT
terminals. Thunder will be possible at the southern terminals late
tonight as an upper level disturbance moves by. Otherwise, the
winds will from the south and a little gusty at times. Also,
expect MVFR ceilings at KABI terminal late tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  67  80  61 /  30  70  60  10
San Angelo  98  67  79  60 /  10  50  70  20
Junction    96  69  84  63 /   0  30  80  40
Brownwood   98  69  79  60 /  10  60  70  20
Sweetwater 100  65  79  60 /  40  70  60  10
Ozona       96  69  79  63 /  10  30  70  30
Brady       95  69  79  63 /   0  50  80  30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion