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Millersview, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

073
FXUS64 KSJT 210710
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 210 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday with a marginal risk for severe storms along and north of I-20.

- Temperatures trend hotter today into Monday, then should be cooler by the middle of next week, along with additional precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Main concern for the short term are showers and thunderstorms and a marginal risk for severe weather.

A weak impulse will move across the Red River Valley this afternoon while at the surface a dryline will form just west of or to the western edge of the CWA. Storms will form along the dryline during the afternoon hours before moving toward the east and southeast. Best dynamics will be toward the I-20 corridor and points northward, so that area will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-40%). Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern given ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40 knots. Storms will exit the area by evening with a warm night expected.

&&

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

On Monday, an upper ridge will be centered over Mexico with our area on its northeastern periphery. At the same time, an upper trough/low will be diving south into the central Rockies. With a strengthened 850mb thermal ridge in our area, temperatures will be hot with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Some locations in the Big Country and Concho Valley could have highs over 100. The record highs for Monday (Sep. 22) are 99 at Abilene (in 2000) and 101 in San Angelo (in 1926).

The aforementioned upper low and trough will emerge into Kansas by Wednesday, and then slowly move east to the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday. Models still differ with the specific strength and placement of the upper trough and low, and on timing with the arrival of the associated cold front. The NAM continues to be fastest with the front, bringing it south into our central counties by Tuesday late afternoon/evening, while other models bring it through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this front, and moisture pooling along it could result in some locally heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday, temperatures will be hot ahead of the front with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. A faster arriving front could limit highs to the upper 80s in our northern counties. The better chance for cooler temperatures area wide looks to be Wednesday and Thursday, when highs should be confined to the 80s.

With timing uncertainties and the possibility of an embedded disturbance or two aloft moving over the area, chances of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with rain chances dropping off from north to south by Thursday.

Indications for the end of the week are for an upper level ridge to shift east into the Plains and West Texas. At this time, temperatures look to be near to slightly above normal with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

VFR conditions expected for most terminals overnight tonight except at KJCT and KSOA where a stratus deck with bases around 015 will lead to MVFR conditions beginning around 11z before dissipating around 15z. Light southerly winds (160-190) will peak at 10-15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 96 73 99 75 / 20 10 0 10 San Angelo 94 70 97 72 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 93 69 95 70 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 94 70 96 72 / 20 10 0 0 Sweetwater 96 72 100 73 / 20 10 0 10 Ozona 92 70 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 91 70 94 71 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPZ-34 LONG TERM....Groh AVIATION...EPZ-34

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion

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