Milton Frwtr, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS66 KPDT 301046
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
346 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Weather conditions across the area are much quieter than yesterday
in the wake of the recent cold front. Minimum RH is still rather
low across portions of central OR, sustaining elevated wildfire
danger, but winds are much lighter today with only a few sites
across the CWA reporting gusts this afternoon. Temperatures are
running a good 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and are
expected to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most areas.
Generally benign conditions are expected this weekend. Dry weather
is anticipated through Sunday afternoon with temperatures climbing
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A trough will dig over the
northeast Pacific Ocean, remaining off the West Coast through next
week. As this trough approaches, it will kick the stubborn SoCal
low off to the east with strong southwest flow aloft developing
over the PacNW. An increasing pressure gradient across the
southern Cascades will increase southwest winds Sunday afternoon,
but wind speeds are expected to remain in the 10-15 mph range. NBM
probabilities for 15 mph or greater wind speeds are limited to far
southern Deschutes and Crook Counties. This will result in
elevated wildfire danger, but critical thresholds are unlikely to
be met.
Column moisture will increase with precipitable water near the
90th percentile on Monday as the southwest flow aloft advects
Pacific moisture into the region. Occasional rain showers will
develop as early as Sunday evening, with periods of unsettled
weather anticipated Monday through midweek. We`re still a bit too
far out to try and time individual shortwave troughs, but at this
time, the most favorable windows for appreciable precipitation are
Monday evening and Tuesday night into early Wednesday as a cold
front moves across the region.
A wetting rain is likely (>60% chance) pretty much area wide. In
fact, there is a 60% chance of seeing at least 0.25" of rainfall
outside of areas that are typically affected by the rain shadows
associated with southwest flow aloft. This precipitation would
really help to wind down the fire weather season across the
region. There is also a low chance (25% chance) for light snow
accumulations in the higher elevations of the Wallowa Mountains by
midweek as snow levels drop to ~7000 ft. However, any
accumulations will be very light.
There are still significant differences in now the global
ensembles evolve this trough by late week. As was the story
yesterday, the GEFS more heavily favors a deeper trough while the
EPS/GEPS depict a less amplified pattern by Wednesday/Thursday.
The cloud cover/precip and cooler, post-frontal air will result in
maximum temperatures near to slightly below climatology next
week. /MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Probability for VFR conditions is high (95%) for all the the area
late this evening and through the overnight based on HREF fields,
with one caveat, where slightly lower, but barely counting as
MVFR conditional visibility in rain showers seems evident in the
LAMP MOS guidance after about 21 UTC Tuesday - 00 UTC Wednesday.
Winds are mainly light and predominately from the south with some
locations veering early Tuesday morning but returning to the south
in the afternoon. Model fields do show an uptick in gusts getting
mixed to the surface layer to around 18-23 knots near the RDM and
BDN terminals from around 17z to 00z Wednesday. Russell/71
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  81  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  46  80  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  46  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  45  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  38  83  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  42  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  43  83  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  52  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion