Mirabile, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

757
FXUS63 KEAX 210503
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Unsettled weather pattern leads to multiple chances of
  precipitation through Thursday. A strong storm or two is possible
  on Tuesday.
* Warmer and drier conditions expected late next week into next
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An active weather pattern is expected the first half of this week as
a slow moving upper trough brings scattered chances of rain to the
region through the weekend.  As this wave builds east, a shortwave
trough dives into the plains keeping the upper trough around through
Thursday.
Some mid level moisture has built into areas along and south of the
Missouri River.  Environmental lapse rates are slightly steeper than
moist adiabatic, leading the to the potential for a few isolated
showers through the late afternoon hours.  This activity should wane
this evening as low level jet develops across Oklahoma and
additional convection develops in southern Missouri disrupting the
moisture feed farther north.  Weak warm air advection lingers
through the overnight hours so can`t entirely rule out the
opportunity for an isolated shower, but the threat is fairly low.
Expect to see skies at least partially clear through the overnight
leading to decent radiational cooling.  With lingering low level
moisture from morning showers along and north of highway 36, could
see fog develop across northern Missouri Sunday morning.  Will need
to monitor this area for the potential for a dense fog advisory.
Shortwave rotating around the upper low is expected to build into
eastern Kansas tomorrow morning leading to a renewed precipitation
chance- especially south of I-70.  Given these showers are expected
to develop through the morning hours on Sunday, expect storms to
remain sub-severe; however, if capping inversion is sufficient ahead
of the short wave could see a strong storm or two develop mid-day
into the afternoon hours across central-southern Missouri where
increasing instability and shear is possible. If temperatures are
kept cooler by clouds and/or precipitation severe threat will be
minimized.
Once again, can`t rule out an isolated storm Sunday night into
Monday, but better chances for precip will be south and east ahead
of the departing shortwave. Precip chances increase once again on
Tuesday as shortwave currently off the west coast of Canada builds
south and east into the Central Plains reinforcing the upper level
trough across the Central US. Upper level flow increases around this
wave as it builds into the central US, potentially leading to a
strong storm or two through the afternoon/evening hours on Tuesday.
Additional shower activity is expected to linger into Wednesday as
the upper level trough pinwheels through the region.
Drier conditions are expected late week as slow moving trough moves
east and upper level ridge builds across the western plains.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Skies are gradually clearing across the region, this combined
with slightly elevated winds has slowed the onset of expected
fog across areas along and north of the MO River. Fog is still
expected with patches of dense fog across northern MO bringing
intermittent IFR to LIFR VIS. MCI and terminals south look to
remain MVFR; however, should the fog sink further south, IFR
conditions are possible.
RA/TSRA are expected to arrive mid morning, a little later than
previously forecast. Short term models remain uncertain about
the location and coverage with most keeping convection south of
STJ with a few outliers taking it north. Timing has generally
shifted later with two notable rounds of heavier convection near
18Z and 00Z for most of the terminals. Intermittent SHRA is
expected throughout the period starting after 15-16Z. RA/TSRA
become more isolated after 00Z vacating the region by 04Z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion