Montezuma, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS62 KFFC 231145
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Key Messages:
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this
      afternoon and evening across North GA.
- Warm temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s expected through the
      short term.
Current satellite loop shows high clouds streaming across the area
associated with the tail end of the shortwave moving NE into the
mid atlantic states. The high pressure ridge/wedge is still
dominating the weather pattern down the eastern seaboard but its
center has moved off the New England coast and will begin to
weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. The wedge is still
entrenched across north and central GA but the models are showing
it pulling back slowly through Wed morning. With the wedge still
in place today any showers and thunderstorms that develop should
be confined to NW GA along the Northern periferia of the wedge.
Any storms that develop will stay below severe limits.
There is a closed low center developing over the TX panhandle
this morning which is expected to move NE into the central Great
Lake states by Wed night/Thu morning. With the wedge weakening and
pulling out of GA, the associated frontal boundary from the
closed low will push east out of the Mid MS river valley Wed
afternoon and into NW GA late Wed night. Precip chances from this
frontal boundary begin to increase across North and west GA Wed
with 60% PoPs moving in by 00z Thu.
High temps will be mainly in the upper 80s to middle 90s Today
and Wednesday with some upper 70s in the NE GA mountains. Low
temps will be in the 60s.
01
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Key Messages:
- Numerous showers and storms Wednesday night through Friday as a
cold front moves through the region. Locally heavy rainfall
possible in north Georgia.
- Temperatures will return to near normal across the area by Friday
and through the weekend.
Taking a look at the upper level flow on Wednesday night, a closed
upper low will be centered over the southern Great Lakes region.
Troughing will extend from this low towards the Middle Mississippi
River Valley region and as far as central Texas, setting up much of
the region underneath southwesterly upper level flow. Combined with
persistent southerly low-level flow, this will cause warm and moist
air to continue to spread into the forecast area, with dewpoints
rising into the low 70s and precipitable water rising to between 1.7
to 2.1 inches. An associated surface low will develop to the
southeast of the closed upper low, with a cold front extending
southward from the surface low and towards the central Gulf Coast.
The troughing on the south side of the low will rotate into the
Southeast overnight into Thursday, which will force the cold front
to slowly approach Georgia from the west. Atmospheric moisture
combined with a broad region of forcing ahead of the front will
provide a favorable setup for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.
Chances for rain will increase across far north Georgia on Wednesday
night and begin to spread southward as the front draws closer.
Likely to categorical PoPs are then forecast generally along and
north of the I-85 corridor on Thursday, with more scattered
thunderstorm activity to the south and east. Rain and ample cloud
cover should promote cooler temperatures in north and west Georgia
on Thursday, though highs will meanwhile rise into the low to mid
90s in portions of central Georgia where there will be lower rain
chances and less cloud cover. Widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time, though a few storms on Thursday could become
strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.
The frontal boundary itself is currently forecast to advance through
the forecast area late Thursday night through Friday, with the axis
of likely PoPs shifting towards central and east Georgia
accordingly.
Rainfall totals on Thursday and Friday are forecast to range from
0.5-1 inch to the south of the I-85 and 1-2 inches to the north.
Locations in the northern tier, particularly in the higher
elevations, could see localized amounts of 2-4 inches in the event
that stronger storms produce heavy rainfall in these areas. Very dry
antecedent conditions will help mitigate most flooding concerns,
though there is an isolated risk for flash flooding in the urban
areas and in the higher terrain in far north Georgia. Some
uncertainty exists with rainfall amounts, as the picture will become
clearer as the event enters the short term period and convective
allowing models get blended into the guidance. Still, confidence is
high at this time in higher PoPs and rainfall totals in north
Georgia compared to central Georgia.
Northwesterly low-level flow behind the front is anticipated to set
up a slightly drier and cooler (highs in the low to mid 80s) airmass
over the forecast area by Friday. These high temperatures near
normal to 5 degrees above normal are expected to continue through
the weekend. Some disagreement remains among the model solutions
with respect to the upper level flow pattern over the weekend. Some
solutions indicate the closed low will redevelop into an open
longwave trough and moves away towards the Atlantic coast, while
others still hint at the possibility of the wave break with the low
decoupling from the upper jet and retrograding the Southeast. The
former solution would favor drier conditions in the coming weekend,
while the latter solution would pull moisture in from the Atlantic
and favor lingering rain chances this weekend.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High clouds streaming across the area with light and vrb winds this
morning. Tempo low cigs psbl near MCN through 14z. Winds will turn
to the SW with mixing and remain S to SW through Thursday. Speeds
staying 9 kt or less through mid week. Will see some afternoon
SHRA/TSRA confined to N GA so no precip in the TAFs. will see some
fair weather CU around 5000ft this afternoon but ceilings will
remain VFR.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  67  90  69 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         90  71  92  71 /   0   0  10  30
Blairsville     81  64  83  65 /  10  10  20  50
Cartersville    90  69  92  69 /  10  10  10  50
Columbus        93  70  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     88  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  30
Macon           90  68  93  70 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            90  69  92  70 /  10  10  20  60
Peachtree City  90  67  91  69 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         91  70  94  71 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion