Moriarty, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS65 KABQ 130636
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1236 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along and east
  of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Severe gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours will be the
  most common threat.
- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall today,
  especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Flash flooding in
  flood prone areas and recent burn scars will be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A deep upper level trough over the Great Basin will translate
eastward across the Rockies and over the high plains today through
tonight. A vort lobe at the base of the trough will leave AZ and
cross NM, producing large scale ascent with a moisture plume
preceding the upward forcing. This will continue to spread
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the state. By
late today, a cessation of precipitation will occur in western NM
zones as the base of the trough moves eastward, followed by a
significant cool, dry air intrusion. This will shove precipitation
to eastern zones this evening before slowly dwindling into the
early morning hours. With a 70-80 kt jet at 300 mb bisecting NM,
significant speed shear will be introduced, keeping the potential
for occasional rotating updrafts while storms move at a brisk pace
(20-30 kt). A few marginally severe hailers and strong downbursts
will accompany a few cells. As for the flooding threat, training
cells (repeated storm movement over the same area) will be the the
primary concern, as storms will be moving rather quickly. A
couple of isolated flash flood warnings cannot be ruled out in
central to eastern zones, but most of these areas should be able
to hold 1 to 2 inches with minimal runoff problems. The Ruidoso
burn scars will be a different story, as they will already be
primed from Friday night`s rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch will
continue for the northern Sacramento mountains through midnight
(14/0600UTC).
Some patchy low stratus and ground fog will likely be left behind
Sunday morning across portions of the San Juan, Rio Grande, and
Estancia valleys, and perhaps in the Canadian and Pecos valleys
too, depending on how water-logged soils become from rainfall.
Any low clouds and/or fog will erode away through the late morning
Sunday with drier air aloft continuing to overtake much of NM
amid westerly flow in the wake of the trough. The soggy soils
could keep dewpoints somewhat elevated in eastern areas, but they
should still drop a few to several degrees along with lower PWATs.
This will put the kibosh on storms with temperatures running a
few degrees (3 to 7) below normal in many zones.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Into Monday, the westerly flow over NM decreases as a weaker
upper low moves into the Idaho and vicinity. Winds at the surface
will start to turn more southerly, gradually drawing up increased
moisture and higher PWATs, particularly in eastern zones where
readings will exceed an inch. A few airmass storms will develop in
these eastern areas and to a lesser extent over the southwestern
mountains Monday.
A little better monsoon plume begins to extend from southwestern
to northeastern zones of NM on Tuesday with westerly flow staying
light and mostly north of our state. This will yield scattered
storm coverage Tuesday with diurnal and differential upslope
heating being the primary driver.
The previously mentioned Idaho low will be making its way into the
northern Great Plains by Wednesday with a hint of light
northwesterly flow disrupting the monsoon plume over NM. This will
reduce coverage, except in the northeastern zones where a weak surface
front will slide in and offer faint moisture and surface
convergence for storms. Storms could last in northeastern to east
central zones through the late evening Wednesday. A sub-par storm
coverage is then modeled for Thursday with the GEFS focusing QPF
over northeast to east central zones with noisier signals on other
ensembles as weak ridging overlays NM. The focus for precipitation
would shift toward western zones Friday and Saturday, assuming the
next Pacific Northwest low comes inland and starts to nudge the
high east southeastward, drawing up the moisture plume into AZ and
western NM. The operational ECMWF and EPS are more boastful with
this scenario rather than the deterministic GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue for
the remainder of tonight and Saturday morning, then through the
afternoon and evening along and east of the continental divide.
Drier air will begin to filter over west central areas during late
morning, then spread over more of the west during the evening.
After midnight Saturday night, scattered showers and storms will
continue east of the central mountain chain. Models have been
struggling to get a handle on the timing of storms crossing TAF
sites, so confidence is low to moderate on the timing of PROB30
and TEMPO groups. A few storms may turn severe by producing large
hail and/or gusts over 50 KT along and east of the central
mountain chain Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
An autumn-like storm system will bring healthy and fairly
widespread rainfall today with many locations receiving amounts
to temporarily soak fuels through the weekend. Excellent humidity
recoveries are forecast this morning and again Sunday morning. After
drying out Sunday afternoon, monsoon storms will slowly start to
reappear Monday, mainly in eastern NM before expanding some
Tuesday, only to reduce again through the middle of the week. This
will keep additional soaking rainfall opportunities light and
fleeting with generally spotty or even isolated footprints next
week. Expect minimum humidity to periodically drop to 15 to 20
percent in many northwestern and west central zones each
afternoon Monday through Thursday. With high pressure building
back over NM late next week, winds aloft and at the surface will
tend to stay light, except under a few strong thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  73  54  75  47 /  80  70  60  10
Dulce...........................  71  46  69  37 /  90  90  80  20
Cuba............................  76  50  70  43 /  70  90  70  20
Gallup..........................  75  49  74  39 /  80  50  30   0
El Morro........................  73  50  71  41 /  90  70  50   5
Grants..........................  80  51  74  40 /  90  80  60  10
Quemado.........................  77  50  74  44 /  70  70  40   5
Magdalena.......................  78  55  73  49 /  70  90  80  20
Datil...........................  77  50  72  43 /  80  80  70  10
Reserve.........................  79  51  78  44 /  70  70  40   5
Glenwood........................  86  55  80  50 /  70  80  50   5
Chama...........................  67  45  63  37 /  80  90  80  20
Los Alamos......................  78  54  67  49 /  50  90  80  30
Pecos...........................  79  52  68  45 /  30  80  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  77  49  67  40 /  30  90  60  20
Red River.......................  68  45  61  35 /  30  80  60  20
Angel Fire......................  70  44  63  26 /  30  70  70  30
Taos............................  79  51  70  41 /  30  90  60  20
Mora............................  75  48  67  42 /  30  80  70  30
Espanola........................  85  54  73  45 /  40  90  70  30
Santa Fe........................  79  56  71  47 /  40  90  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  84  54  74  45 /  40  90  70  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  59  75  54 /  60  90  80  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  60  77  55 /  60  90  70  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  57  79  48 /  60  90  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  60  77  53 /  60  90  70  30
Belen...........................  90  60  80  54 /  60  90  70  20
Bernalillo......................  88  59  77  51 /  60  90  70  30
Bosque Farms....................  89  57  78  50 /  60  90  70  20
Corrales........................  88  58  78  52 /  60  90  70  30
Los Lunas.......................  89  58  79  52 /  60  90  70  20
Placitas........................  85  56  75  51 /  50  90  70  30
Rio Rancho......................  85  59  76  53 /  60  90  70  30
Socorro.........................  91  61  80  55 /  50  90  80  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  54  70  47 /  60 100  80  30
Tijeras.........................  81  56  72  49 /  60 100  70  30
Edgewood........................  79  55  71  46 /  50  90  80  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  53  73  43 /  40  90  80  40
Clines Corners..................  79  53  68  47 /  20  80  80  40
Mountainair.....................  81  54  72  47 /  40  90  80  30
Gran Quivira....................  81  55  72  49 /  30  90  80  40
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  76  55 /  20  70  90  50
Ruidoso.........................  81  51  70  47 /  20  60  90  60
Capulin.........................  78  53  68  44 /   5  50  60  40
Raton...........................  82  53  71  44 /  10  50  60  30
Springer........................  83  55  74  46 /  10  50  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  77  53  68  46 /  20  70  70  40
Clayton.........................  86  60  73  54 /   0  20  60  40
Roy.............................  81  57  69  50 /   5  50  70  40
Conchas.........................  89  62  75  56 /   0  50  80  50
Santa Rosa......................  86  60  74  54 /   5  60  80  60
Tucumcari.......................  87  61  76  56 /   0  30  80  60
Clovis..........................  89  63  78  59 /   0  10  70  80
Portales........................  89  63  80  59 /   0  10  80  80
Fort Sumner.....................  89  62  78  57 /   0  40  80  70
Roswell.........................  93  66  84  61 /   0  20  80  70
Picacho.........................  88  60  78  57 /  10  30  90  60
Elk.............................  82  56  77  54 /  10  30  90  60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion