Murfreesboro, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS64 KOHX 022340
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through at least this
  weekend.
- Low chance (20-30%) rain could return by Monday/Tuesday next
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
It sure is beautiful out there! A large area of high pressure
analyzed over New England continues to push its influence across
our area, and plentiful sunshine we did indeed get from it today
with highs at BNA topping out at 88 degrees. Moving into the
overnight hours, radiation fog chances are very low as southerly
sustained winds will remain between 5 to 7 mph. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 50s. Enjoy another quiet weather evening!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
To no one`s surprise, the sun is out without any impediments -- for
now. Temperatures have already climbed into the 70s just about
everywhere in Middle TN and dew points in the upper 50s are making
for just a glorious day. We`re headed into the mid 80s for everyone
west of the Plateau and folks on the Plateau can expect afternoon
highs to almost touch 80. That said, as we get into the afternoon
hours, clouds will start to percolate and I can`t believe I have to
do this, but I need to throw in a low PoP (15-20%) in our northwest
for late this afternoon/early this evening. The last several runs of
CAMs are suggesting a storm or two could pop up. Impacts should be
extremely limited. While our weather will continue to be controlled
by upper level ridging over the next couple of days, the ridge is
expected to weaken a bit tomorrow and Saturday and this should help
temperatures be a couple of degrees cooler. However, we will remain
4-5 degrees above seasonal norms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Of course, the main question on everybody`s mind is when will we
have more rain. Models seem to be really starting to hone in on
Monday for a low chance (25-30%), then things become a little more
widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday (40-50%). The NBM and other
global ensembles seem to be in better agreement about this today.
The other thing we`re seeing better agreement in is the passage of a
cold front on Wednesday. Of course, that begs the question about
thunderstorms. As of right now, forecast soundings are very
unimpressive. 30 kts of shear with some instability would open the
door for general thunderstorm, but sub-6 deg lapse rates and no
helicity would keep us from having much more than that. For now,
that means no mention of severe weather, but the passage of the cold
front should finally get temperatures back where they belong by this
time next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A surface ridge remains locked in place over Middle Tennessee. We
can look forward to light/calm winds the next 24 hrs. with VFR wx
except for overnight dense radiation fog and low stratus at KSRB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    61  86  57  87 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     52  77  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       57  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     56  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      55  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   58  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        59  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion