Nathrop, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

574
FXUS65 KPUB 290457
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1057 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A couple of degrees cooler tomorrow over the plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Currently...
A weak trough was noted extending across the southeast plains from
around La Junta to Walsenburg. A few convective showers were noted
with this trough early this afternoon. Otherwise isolated
showers were noted along the CONTDVD region. Temps were in the
70s and 80s across the plains with 60s in the valleys. Quite a
bit of high clouds were noted over parts of the region
associated with the trough to our west.
Better moisture is noted over the region per water vapor imagery, as
the trough over Arizona lift out to the northeast and weakens.
Overall, best chance of showers the rest of today will continue
to be over the mountains, especially along the CONTDVD,
Isolated showers will be possible along the I-25 corridor,
especially later this afternoon. The activity is likely to be
weak over the plains, with gusty winds and isolated lightning
flashes the main concern.
Tonight, activity should dissipate over the plains by early to mid
evening, but may linger a bit over the mtns, especially along
the divide where better lift is noted with the low lifting
towards the region.
Tomorrow, we should see a bit better chance of showers and isolated
storms over the region as the low lifts over the region. Although
the trough will be over the region, this system will be filling so
forcing will be gradually weaken with time. Temps tomorrow,
especially over the  plains will be 2-3F cooler than todays max
temps. Temps over the mtns tomorrow will be similar to todays max
temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Tuesday...A quick-moving upper wave glances by to the north-
northwest by the afternoon, initiating some isolated convection
along the Continental Divide. The increased west to southwest
flow aloft across the state will help boost temps into the mid
60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s
for the plains.
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridging develops across the region
for both days, producing dry conditions and gradually warming temps.
Forecast grids call for nil pops both days, while afternoon high
temps climb into the 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to
upper 80s for the plains.
Friday and Saturday...Long range models agree on bringing a Pacific
system across the Great Basin on Friday, and the Rocky Mt region on
Saturday, though models disagree on strength. Current forecast grids
indicate that Fri will be the warmest day of the extended period as
warming southwest flow strengthens across the state. Isolated
convection moves into the higher terrain during the evening, then
tries to push east through Sat as the upper feature pushes to the
east. At this time, just 5 degrees of cooling can be expected from
Fri into Sat, but stay tuned as models get a better handle on what
will happen this upcoming weekend. Moore
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with light winds and
decreasing clouds overnight. On Mon, afternoon convection
develops again, especially over the mountains, and will carry a
vcsh at KALS starting around 20z as activity drifts off the
higher terrain. Trend in 00z model guidance has been toward a
better chance of storms at KPUB/KCOS in the 22z-02z window, and
will introduce a prob30 for -tsra to both sites for a few hours
for that timeframe. Convective activity decreases quickly Mon
evening, with most storms done by 03z. Winds Mon will be light
in the morning, then generally take on a sly component after 18z
at all sites. Gusty and erratic outflow winds possible near
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion