Navarre, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

452
FXUS64 KMOB 061121
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A large upper trof over the eastern and central CONUS becomes
oriented over the eastern states through Sunday, and in the meantime
an associated surface low located well off to the north brings a
weak cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. Based on the
latest guidance, the front looks sufficient to support generally
slight chance pops for much of the area on Saturday, then dry
conditions follow for Sunday as a surface ridge builds into the
region. The upper trof weakens on Monday, then is reinforced by
another system which advances from the Plains into the eastern
states through Wednesday. A modest inverted surface trof looks to
form over the area on Monday then shift off to the west (or
dissipate) on Tuesday, with a series of shortwaves meanwhile
progressing across the forecast area. Have opted to have slight
chance to chance pops return to the forecast east of I-65 on Monday,
then for Tuesday have gone with slight chance to chance pops for the
southern half of the area.
The upper trof weakens substantially Wednesday into Friday while
slowly becoming oriented mainly over the East Coast states, with
progressively drier air anticipated to flow into the forecast area.
For Wednesday, may see some isolated convection near the coast, but
otherwise anticipate dry conditions, and dry conditions follow for
Thursday and Friday. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 90s then
trend to the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Highs on
Wednesday will be 85 to 90, then highs on Thursday and Friday tend
to be around 90. Lows Saturday night range from the mid to upper 60s
well inland to the lower 70s near the coast, then Sunday night will
be cooler and range from around 60 well inland to near 70 at the
immediate coast. Lows Monday night through Thursday night typically
range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast. A low risk
of rip currents is anticipated through Monday, then a moderate risk
follows for Monday night through Wednesday. There is a possibility
that a high risk of rip currents could become warranted for Tuesday
which will need to be monitored. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. High cloud
cover is expected to be thick enough into the early morning
hours to limit fog development. Light southerly winds overnight
through Saturday will see a shift to northerly around 5 knots as a
weak cold front sags south over the forecast area late this
afternoon into Saturday evening. A few light rainshowers are
possible as the boundary moves south across the forecast area, but
is not expected to impact operations across the area.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A light northeasterly flow develops by early Saturday morning then
becomes variable in the afternoon. A light to moderate northerly
flow follows for Saturday night and Sunday, then strengthens Sunday
night before relaxing on Monday. A moderate to occasionally strong
east-northeasterly flow develops Monday night then becomes a light
to moderate easterly flow for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Will need to continue to monitor for Small Craft Exercise Caution or
potential Small Craft Advisory conditions mostly over the open Gulf
waters late Sunday night into Monday morning and again late Monday
night into early Tuesday afternoon. No other impacts are anticipated
other than higher winds and seas near storms. /29
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion