012 FXUS61 KILN 241740 AFDILNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 140 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS... A couple of systems will keep rainfall across the region through Thursday. Drier conditions are expected for Friday and into the beginning of next week with only minimal precipitation chances.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated to scattered rain shower activity will be around through the day. Instability is somewhat limited initially, however there are some breaks in the clouds in Indiana. Due to this took out thunder mention during the first part of the forecast, however left in later in the day.
A disturbance will bring more widespread rain to the region tonight especially near and south of the Ohio River. Will continue heavy rain mention in the HWO, however fine tuned location to focus more on the southern portions of the region.
Temperatures in the 70s are expected today and lows tonight in the 60s across most locations.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Another disturbance will move through on Thursday bringing additional rainfall chances to the region, especially across southeastern portions of the region near and southeast of Interstate 71.
High temperatures in the 70s are expected and lows Thursday night in the 50s.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An expansive surface high pressure ridge will extend from Ontario and the Great Lakes region down through the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. This ridge axis will remain in place into the weekend before beginning to gradually erode away from the southwest through early next week. Meanwhile, a trough axis in the mid and upper levels will gradually transition into a weak cut off low over the Tennessee Valley through the weekend. While the better chance for pcpn with this looks to remain to our south and east, a few showers may sneak into our southeast areas over the weekend so will allow for some lower end pops there.
Some uncertainty develops in the models through early to mid next week with how the mid/upper low over the Tennessee Valley will eventually evolve and interact with some potential tropical energy off the Southeast coast. Again though, it looks like any pcpn with this should remain off to our southeast as upper level ridging will likely begin to build into our area from the northwest.
Temperatures will remain seasonable to a few degrees above normal through much of the period with daytime highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows mostly in the 50s.
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.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Isolated to scattered shower activity will be around for this afternoon and into the early evening hours. A mix of cigs will be present this afternoon and evening. More widespread shower activity will move into the region tonight, however the TAF sites will be on the edge of most of this activity. Have showers around the longest at KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. Stratus and fog are expected to develop overnight. Cigs and vsbys will gradually start to improve during the day on Thursday. Some residual light shower activity will be possible for Thursday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible into Thursday afternoon.
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.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion