Nerstrand, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS63 KMPX 241131
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog this morning burns off by 9-10am, followed by
  mostly sunny skies.
- Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue throughout the
  period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Other than some rogue sprinkles forming in portions of western
Minnesota within a very subtle low level convergence area, this
morning has proceeded as anticipated with patchy dense fog
across much of the MPX CWA. Per satellite imagery, the thickest
fog is where you would expect within the vicinity of the Great
Lakes as well as southeastern Minnesota, with the lowest
visibilities being observed around 1/2 to 1 mile in central to
east-central Minnesota as well as portions of southeastern MN.
The fog is much patchier than yesterday at this time with little
in the way of visibility reductions from the Twin Cities and
westwards until you are north of Mille Lacs where some of the
lake moisture is closer. Another pleasant day is expected once
the fog burns off with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s
under mostly sunny skies with light winds generally within 5 mph
variable in direction as high pressure is directly overhead.
There has been little change within the forecast for the
upcoming 7 to 10 days with dry conditions and temperatures
generally in the 70s for highs and mid 50s to low 60s for lows.
GEFS ensemble guidance shows only 2 members with any kind of
precipitation to mention for MSP through the next 10 days, with
sporadic low confidence chances afterwards. This is due to upper
level ridging with surface high pressure bringing subsidence
across the region, with a small chance for far northern MN
Friday into Saturday as a weak trough slides eastwards across
the Canadian provinces. Expect primarily fair weather cloud
cover during the warmest time of day, with clear skies
otherwise. The potential for additional fog will also exist as
dew points generally stay in the 50s, which alongside clear
skies and efficient radiational cooling means high relative
humidity overnight alongside light winds. This will be a day to
day thing to monitor and is our only real sensible weather to
speak of.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
While western MN runs VFR with FEW-SCT midlvl passing clouds,
eastern MN into western WI is again dealing with fog through
later morning. Best chances for LIFR/VLIFR conditions are in
central- eastern MN into western WI. VFR conditions then
expected from late morning onward.
KMSP...Cannot rule out a few periods of post-12z IFR
visibilities but conditions this morning are nowhere near as
degraded as this time yesterday. Thus, by late morning, high
confidence in VFR conditions with only passing mid-to-upper
level clouds.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-
     Benton-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Rice-Sherburne-Stearns-Steele-
     Todd-Waseca-Washington.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion