Nerstrand, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

165
FXUS63 KMPX 231927
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of dense fog likely across much of the region
  late tonight through Wednesday morning. Additional fog is
  likely tomorrow night.
- Mostly dry and mild through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Tonight - Wednesday...It`s shaped up to be a nice September
afternoon following the round of widespread dense fog this morning.
Many locations have warmed into the 70s, with the warmest afternoon
temperatures observed across western MN where fog remained
patchy. Conversely, lingering stratus across far SE MN/W WI has
slowed warming. 2 PM temperatures in and around Eau Claire were
in the mid 60s. Strato-cu will continue to mix out of the
picture this afternoon and sunny skies will prevail. The clear
skies and light northeasterly flow will promote another night of
widespread fog concerns across much of the region. There are
two fog regimes to watch overnight into Wednesday morning. The
first is related to the northeasterly flow, which will support a
bank of widespread dense fog across central-southern MN/western
WI. This is an identical scenario to last night and would
anticipate needing a Dense Fog Advisory through ~10 AM or so
tomorrow morning. The other regime is the potential for
radiation fog across western MN. There is some uncertainty in
how dense this fog will be so confidence in a headline is lower.
Fog will mix out of the picture by mid-morning, though again
will probably see stratus linger across far eastern MN/western
WI. With this in mind, have a high temperatures gradient from
west (mid 70s) to east (Upper 60s/low 70s) tomorrow afternoon.
Thursday - Early Next Week...Light northerly flow will once again
support the development of fog Thursday morning. Initial hi-res
guidance is a little less bullish with overall coverage as compared
the previous nights, so it`s possible we may not need a headline.
Fog once again mixes out and temperatures are forecast to climb into
the warmest values of the work week thus far Thursday afternoon
(Upper 70s/lower 80s). More of the same is on deck for Friday,
with plenty of afternoon sunshine to go around through the end
of the work week.
A shortwave is progged to advance east across southern Canada Friday
into Saturday. Variations exist in how far north/south the wave will
track, along with how deep trough extends. Most solutions reflect a
dry forecast across south central MN/western WI, though it`s the
"best chance" for any precipitation over the upcoming week. The
deterministic Euro is the most aggressive with shower/storm
potential ahead of the surface cold front over southern
Canada/northern Minnesota, though still would likely be looking
at dry solution across our forecast area. For what it`s worth,
only a couple of members across the Euro ensemble support this
solution. In other words, our "No PoP" forecast grids seems fair
at this time.
Large scale 585dm ridge is forecast to re-establish across the
northern CONUS starting the second half of Saturday through
Monday, which will once again yield the continuation of dry and
mild conditions. Latest NBM features highs climbing from the mid
to upper 70s into the lower 80s through the weekend. We start
to see some changes in the upper air pattern around the middle
of next week, as the ridge gives way to a few disturbances in
the upper-flow. That being said, ensemble solutions point to
large scale southwesterly flow through the end of September/early
October. So, while there may be a few minor precipitation
chances, the larger headline will be the continuation of mild
temperatures. The operational NBM continues to advertise highs
around 80 degrees or so, but do think it will be reasonable to
achieve highs closer to the 75th percentile (mid 80s) given the
5- 10C positive 850mb anomaly set to build over the northern
CONUS early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low stratus over southeast MN and west-central WI has been slow
to break apart again this morning. IFR/MVFR will continue for an
hour or 2 into this afternoon at RNH and EAU before conditions
improve to VFR. Elsewhere, VFR is expected through this evening.
Due to continued northeasterly flow off the Great Lakes,
widespread fog looks like a good possibility again Wednesday
morning. VLIFR conditions look most likely from central to
south-central MN and portions of western WI starting a few
hours before sunrise. Have gone aggressive with the dense fog at
the terminals in these locations due to the past 2 mornings.
Elsewhere, IFR to at best MVFR is expected. Conditions should
improve by late morning, but low stratus may struggle to clear
quickly as previous days. North-northeast winds near 5 knots
this afternoon slow to near calm tonight.
KMSP...VFR expected until early Wednesday morning as low stratus
continues to clear and cigs lift. Periods of IFR from fog and
low stratus are possible from 10-14Z Wednesday so have
maintained TEMPO from previous TAF. Winds will be northeasterly
near 5 knots the entire period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...CTG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion