Nesbitt, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

940
FXUS64 KSHV 280536
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Look for dry weather to continue through much of the upcoming
   work week.
- Along with the dry forecast will be moderating temperatures
   through the upcoming work week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The key players to our very benign forecast will involve upper
ridging across across the Ohio Valley into the Ouachitas in
Arkansas and into East Texas and Louisiana with bookend upper
troughs, one across the Texas Hill Country and another across the
Southeast U.S. into the Tenn Valley.
By Tuesday, the above mentioned upper ridge axis does get squeezed
or nudged slightly eastward with the arrival of a longwave trough
which may become cutoff due to ridging locked up across the Ohio
Valley, at least through Tuesday. If there was any low level
moisture to speak of, such a weather pattern would suggest that
showers and thunderstorms would be in the forecast.
Unfortunately, this is the opposite case as our region should
remain dry with the lack of available moisture for the trough to
lift.
Likewise, the medium range progs are struggling with just what
this trough will do beyond the Wednesday timeframe. Some suggest
it will become absorbed with the trough across the Southeast Conus
which will then become elongated across the heart of our region
into Southeast Texas. We are beginning to see some moisture to
work with by late in the upcoming work week for maybe some small
pops, mainly across our eastern and northeast third. The NBM
remains dry through this timeframe however and will continue to
follow its lead.
Until then, enjoy these warm temperatures and the milder nights
while we have them.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For the 28/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this forecast period. Aside from a few high clouds,
skies will remain mostly clear through the night. Like with last
night, isolated patchy fog will be possible towards daybreak, but
guidance is not favoring widespread development. Electing not to
prevail any terminal impacts at this time, but will amend if
conditions look to deteriorate. Throughout the daytime hours, a
lower VFR Cu field will develop right on cue by the late morning
and early afternoon, dissipating soon after sunset, with another
evening of mostly clear skies to follow. Winds will remain light
and variable to nearly calm through the night, becoming
northeasterly at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 mph during the
afternoon with a few gusts of up to 15 kts possible, particularly
south and east.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Spotter Activation is not expected at this time.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  65  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  64  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  86  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  87  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  87  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion