425 FXUS64 KLZK 210531 AFDLZKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
-Strong to severe storms will be possible across northern Arkansas overnight through Sunday morning.
-Additional rounds of widespread rain are likely late Sunday evening through Wednesday across much of the state.
-Hot and humid conditions will continue today, lasting through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
To begin the period, a somewhat active weather pattern is expected over the next several days as multiple shortwaves move across the state. With it comes the chance for showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures (later in the week). The best chance for rain through the period will be Monday through Wednesday morning. While widespread severe is not expected, some isolated storms could produce severe hail and/or wind gusts.
As of this forecast package, showers and thunderstorms continue to move across northern locations bringing the chance for small hail and gusty winds. With that said, the bigger threat could be flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms.
As with any scattered convection, exact totals depend where storms set up. Northern Arkansas will likely see the most in the way of rain accumulations with two to four inches possible through Wednesday. Lesser amounts are expected the further south you go across the state with one to three inches possible across central locations and up to an inch for southern locations. Higher accumulations will be possible for areas with consistent storms or training.
Temperatures are expected to be average to above average through much of the period with high temperatures in the lower 80s (mainly northern locations) to lower 90s and overnight low temperatures dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s across the state.
&&
.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The main aviation impacts during this period will occur over northern Arkansas with scattered thunderstorms overnight. Storms have formed up along the MO/AR border as the low level jet starts to develop. Most guidance has these storms remaining along the nose of that jet in the location of KHRO and KBPK for 3-5 hours. Depending on how quickly the clouds and storms move east, it could cause fog to develop in the morning over northern Arkansas if there is any clearing with how wet the ground will be in the morning.
The next aviation threat will be isolated storms that will form over south central Arkansas in the afternoon. Most activity looks to stay south of I40, but the forcing is weak so outflows could migrate storms north throughout the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 92 68 87 67 / 40 30 60 60 Camden AR 93 68 90 70 / 10 10 30 20 Harrison AR 87 65 81 65 / 50 40 80 70 Hot Springs AR 92 68 88 69 / 10 20 50 40 Little Rock AR 92 70 88 71 / 10 20 40 40 Monticello AR 95 70 92 72 / 10 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 91 69 87 69 / 10 20 50 40 Mountain Home AR 90 66 83 65 / 60 40 70 60 Newport AR 92 68 88 68 / 40 30 50 60 Pine Bluff AR 93 68 91 70 / 10 10 30 20 Russellville AR 93 69 87 69 / 10 30 60 50 Searcy AR 93 68 88 68 / 20 20 50 50 Stuttgart AR 93 69 90 70 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
$$
DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...75
NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion