Numa, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS65 KPUB 100902
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another day of gusty showers and thunderstorms, starting this
  afternoon and into tonight.
- Daily showers and storms will continue over the mountains
  through midweek, with lower chances for the eastern plains.
- Excessive rainfall will be possible on Friday, mainly over the high
  country, with near normal temperatures and chances for
  showers and thunderstorms over the rest of the area.
- We dry out and warm up for Sunday and Monday, before returning
  back to near and below normal temperatures and continued
  chances for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Today and Tonight...
Upper low remains mostly stagnant over the western states, giving us
another day of breezy southwest flow aloft into our region. Monsoon
moisture will once again flow into the mountains, initiating
convection during the early afternoon. Storms will push quickly
towards the northeast, with less coverage anticipated over the
eastern plains. Current guidance keeps areas near and west of I-25
relatively dry, with less CAPE to work with than today. If any
storms actually manage to make it out east, they could intensify
pretty quickly, but the change in steering flow should keep most
activity in less favorable air. Decent shear will also be in place
across the area, though a bit less than yesterday, with models
showing 30 knots or more over most of the CWA this afternoon, though
values over the plains wane in the early evening. Storms should
overall be relatively quick-moving, with gusty outflow winds as the
main impact concern. While storm coverage will decrease into the
overnight, some activity may linger over the Palmer, as well as the
central mountains. Meanwhile, temperatures remain consistent with
the previous few days, with 80s to 90s over the plains and high-70s
in the valleys.
Thursday...
The trough out west amplifies slightly on Thursday, sending a wave
of energy into our region. Main axis of vorticity looks to advect
from the San Luis Valley up towards the Palmer Divide, pegging that
area as the most likely for convective initiation. Models still look
to keep CAPE below 1000 J/kg or so, keeping storms a bit on the
weaker side. Gusty outflow winds and possibly some small hail will
be the main impact concerns. Given the increased moisture tap in
place, showers and storms will linger over the Continental Divide
through the rest of the day and into Thursday Night. Temperatures
may increase a few degrees, but will generally stay consistent with
80s-90s for the plains and 70s for the valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Thursday Night and Friday..
Showers and thunderstorms look to linger over the high country
through much of Thursday night and into Friday morning. Overnight
lows on Thursday night will be slightly warmer than normal as
southwest flow ahead of the low persists, only allowing temperatures
to cool into the upper 50s and 60s on the plains, and mid 40s over
mountain valleys. Friday is setting up to be the wettest day of the
period, as the low finally begins to eject into the northern
Rockies and make its way onto the northern plains by late
Saturday. For Friday though, strong, moist, southwest flow aloft
will remain overhead as the trough axis approaches throughout
the day. Waves embedded in the trough and ample moisture will be
sufficient for widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms
over the high country, along with increased chances for
excessive rainfall and flash flooding. PWATs are near 1 inch
over our San Juans, and forecast skew ts show saturated profiles
with "long, skinny" CAPE, indicative of heavy rainfall
potential over much of the high country for Friday as well. A
few stronger storms may even be possible, especially over the
San Luis Valley and our southwest mountains. WPC has much of
mountains outlooked for a slight risk for excessive rainfall,
and SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms as well. Chances
for heavy rain and flash flooding will exist near the mountains
and over the I-25 corridor as well, but will decrease the
further east we go on Friday as highest moisture content looks
to remain furthest west. Burn scars, urban centers, and typical
flood prone areas will need to be closely monitored on Friday,
especially for any locations that see significant rainfall on
Thursday. Temperature-wise, we start to cool off on Friday with
daytime highs remaining much closer to normal and around 5 to 8
degrees cooler than Thursday. This will mean highs in the low to
mid 80s on the plains and upper 60s over mountain valleys.
Saturday..
Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday, though
they do look to become less in coverage, and slightly more tied to
northern portions of the forecast area as the low continues to try
to eject out into the northern plains. A reinforcing push of cooler
air also looks to come through Friday night into Saturday morning,
which should keep Saturday just a few degrees cooler than Friday for
most locations. A few stronger storms may also be possible on our
far eastern and southeastern plains Saturday evening, though at this
time most of the dryline convection looks to stay on the Kansas side
of our border.
Sunday Onwards..
Our flow aloft stays a bit messy heading into the beginning of next
week, as another low looks to move onshore over California and spin
over the Great Basin for a couple of days. This pattern looks to
bring warmer and drier weather for Sunday and Monday as our flow
aloft becomes zonal and only slightly southwesterly by Monday. But
by Tuesday and Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast, especially over the high country, as
the low moves into the Great Basin and drags in better moisture
over our region. Daytime highs look to be near normal for Sunday
and Monday, cooling to slightly below normal through the middle
of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through 24 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire over
the mountains Wednesday afternoon, pushing east-northeast through
the rest of the day. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern
near all three terminal when showers pass by. Currently, coverage
out east looks too sparse to put any prevailing precipitation groups
in. Best chance for wetting precipitation will be at KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion