Oak Island, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

884
FXUS62 KILM 210700
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week as a cold front approaches.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level shortwave ridging will shift overhead today with its axis
passing by later this afternoon or evening. Beneath this ridge, dry
air and subsidence in the middle and upper troposphere will keep
precip chances very low and yield very isolated, if any, shower
activity this afternoon. Along the coast, isolated pop-up sea breeze
showers cannot be ruled out as weak instability exists in the
cumulus layer at the top of the boundary layer, but the broader
subsidence through much of the troposphere should keep any of these
from becoming thunderstorms.
Near the surface, rather strong high pressure shifting off the New
England coast will send a backdoor cold front through the area early
this morning, tightening the pressure gradient as a surface trough
extending from the Bahamas northward to offshore of the Outer Banks
holds its ground. This will lead to steady northeast winds today and
breezy conditions over the coastal waters. High temps should end up
a few degrees cooler than yesterday behind this front due to
slightly cooler air flowing in and a mix of clouds and sun during
the day, resulting in highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s.
Tonight, steady north to northeast winds will continue, especially
near the coast. Inland areas should end up seeing a period of light
or calm winds during the evening into the overnight as the gradient
is somewhat weaker there and winds just above the ground are
subsequently weaker. But later in the night, light north to
northeast winds should begin mixing down. A bank of low clouds is
expected to slide in from the east or northeast late in the
overnight period, with low temps generally in the middle 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Mainly below normal rain chances, especially inland
*No severe storm or excessive rain threat
*Near to above normal temps
Confidence:
*High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still looks
mainly dry with temps near to above normal for this time of year as
high pressure to the north shifts southward more into the area. Just
very low rain chances due to a coastal trough, sea breeze and weak
energy aloft, with the greatest chances near the coast. No risk for
severe storms or excessive rainfall expected. Highs generally in the
mid 80s each day, with some upper 80s near/west of I-95 Tue. Lows
each night mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to below normal rain chances thru Wed night; near to above
normal rain chances likely Thu thru at least early Sat
*Very low severe storm threat inland Thu; Low severe storm threat
Fri/Sat
*Above normal temps likely thru Fri night w/ near normal temps Sat
Confidence:
*Wed thru Wed Night: Moderate to High
*Thu thru Fri Night: Moderate
*Sat: Low to Moderate
Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast this
period but some uncertainty remains, especially later in the
week. Still looks pretty warm and mostly dry through Wed night
with a bit better chance of rain Thu and moreso Fri due to
increasing moisture/forcing ahead of an upper trough/low and
surface cold front to the west. There is a bit more uncertainty
in rain chances Sat depending on whether the weak cold front
moves through. In any event, increasing deep layer shear is
likely but the big question mark for any severe storm potential
is the amount of instability, as per usual. Thus, will continue
to monitor for a low end threat of isolated severe storms Thu
thru at least Fri. Also, think there is at least a low end risk
for heavy rainfall given the abundant moisture and potential for
slow storm motions/training, mainly well inland on Thu/Fri.
However, the flash flood risk should be even lower given how dry
it has been lately. Otherwise, temps should mostly be above
normal, possibly getting back closer to normal Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Steady northeast winds will preclude a vis threat at the coastal
terminals, however, low cigs over the ocean may end up bringing
scattered to broken MVFR restrictions early this morning. This
carries moderate to high confidence at KILM and less confidence at
the Myrtles. In addition, some guidance tools suggest a bank of low
clouds may spread down from the north early this morning, but this
carries low confidence at this time. Inland terminals have a
moderate threat for MVFR vis restrictions early this morning as
lighter winds and clear skies, along with low-level moisture from
yesterday`s convection, all point toward generally favorable
conditions for mist formation, but intermittent winds should prevent
anything worse than MVFR vis reductions. Otherwise, expect any early
morning vis restrictions to burn off by 12-13Z while low cigs may
take up to a few more hours more to lift, depending on their extent.
Beyond this, VFR conditions are probable through the rest of the
period, with IFR low cigs becoming a concern at all terminals just
beyond the 06Z TAF period.
Extended Outlook... Moderate to high potential for low cigs/vsbys
early Monday morning. Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a
possibility from Tuesday morning onward. Rain chances and associated
vis/cig restrictions become a possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight... A backdoor front will slide through early this
morning, marking the start of a tightening pressure gradient which
will lead to increasing northeast winds through today, peaking this
evening, then relaxing a little through tonight. Peak winds are
still expected to hold below Small Craft Advisory conditions with
speeds mainly between 15-20 kts and gusts mainly below 25 kts,
although occasional gusts may peak at 25 kts in the waters around 10-
20 nmi off Cape Fear this evening. Seas increase through today and
peak this evening around 3-5 ft, with peak heights of 6-ft possible
near the 20nmi boundary off Cape Fear this evening before seas
gradually subside through tonight into the 2-4 ft range by sunrise
Monday.
Monday through Thursday...High confidence this period. High pressure
centered to the north will shift southward into the area while a
coastal trough sets up into Tue. This pattern will then break down
by Wed as high pressure shifts offshore ahead of an approaching
storm system. Expect a rather weak pressure gradient thru the period
so no significant winds/seas are likely.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides: Minor coastal flooding is possible during each high tide
through early this week along the lower Cape Fear River.
Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected for New
Hanover County Monday and for New Hanover/Pender Counties
Tuesday due to increasing easterly swells partly associated with
distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion