Oakhurst, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS64 KHGX 161846
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
146 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Seasonably hot temperatures, around or slightly above average,
  and generally dry conditions are expected in the short term
  with only isolated/spotty showers and storms in the afternoon.
- Rain and storm chances increase towards the end of the week and
  into the weekend, with the best chances for rain focusing near
  the seabreeze front, and less rain potential farther away from
  it.
- At the coasts, water levels look to be above astronomical norms,
  leading to noticeably higher reaches of high tides.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
We`ve got some weather going on, it`s not totally stagnant, and
actually, the upper air pattern is fairly amplified. Yet despite
all that, the impacts on sensible weather don`t appear to be all
that significant. We`ll cruise through mid-September in something
pretty akin to the late summer, early fall transition that is
right up with where we are.
Today, we`ll take a peek into my forecast process and the portion
that kind of stood out to me as the most representative of what
today`s forecast is about. First, I`ll get a handle of what the
atmosphere is actually doing, and then do the preliminary work of
using the existing observational and model data to build my
mental model of how roughly the atmosphere is going to go for the
next week. But today, I want to focus on the next phase, where I
start to really dig into the ensemble data to see if there are
strong signals of extremes or any other sort of big deviations
from what my mental model would lead me to expect in the forecast.
Today...there`s not really a whole lot that pops out here! A
couple handy tools, especially for longer term forecasting, is to
look at ensemble situational awareness tables and the ECMWF
ensemble Extreme Forecast Index to quickly spot stretches that I
really need to evaluate significantly. These tools aren`t really
showing me a whole lot here.
The SA tables here show that the ensemble means aren`t really
expected to deviate too much from climatological norms (which I
roughly sketch out as between the 10th and 90th percentile). About
the only thing is that the V component of 250 mb winds is around
the 10th percentile, and fairly consistently through the period.
This means that upper jet winds are expected to unseasonably
northerly, so we`ll find ourselves between an amplified high level
ridge to the west and an amplified high level trough to the east.
Which is somewhat interesting, but doesn`t really indicate
something of concern by itself, and that`s just what it is - by
itself.
The Euro ensemble`s EFI does show some intermittent patches above
0.5 for max temps in the area. That could indicate that there is
some limited potential for unusually hot temps through the week.
But since it is patchy and transient from day to day, I suspect
this may be a bit more of an artifact of the fact that in the
summer our temp ranges are pretty compressed (thanks, moderating
Gulf influence!) - it doesn`t take a whole lot to go from
seasonably hot to record hot. And since the ensemble mean 850
temps aren`t progged to be above the 90th percentile, I`m not
super concerned about getting torchier than we tend to be this
time of year. As far as sensible impact to us goes, it`s most
likely that those of us who are outside this week will go "hmm,
kinda hot out here today".
One place where we will get at least a little bit of noticeable
change will be with rain chances. We`ve been on the drier side of
seasonable, and had several days with little to no rain. Even if
not completely devoid of rain, pretty close. Over the next several
days, we should trend more towards something on the more moist
side of seasonable. Not even to stand out as unusually high
moisture, but PWATs should get closer to 2 inches, allowing for
us to see days with isolated shower and storm development
gradually become more like scattered showers and storms as we get
towards the weekend. This will all be within the realm of what
we`d consider "normal" for late summer weather in the area, but if
you check out the radar each afternoon, you should visually notice
a difference. And, for your particular patch of ground, your odds
of seeing some rain personally should go up as the week comes to
an end.
Now, just beyond the end of the current forecast period, we may
have our next frontal passage getting all geared up. Since it`s
beyond the forecast horizon, it`s pretty speculative to get into
many details, but do want to mention as something we may get to
keep an eye on in the days to come.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Though not normally scheduled currently, wanted to drop in a quick
note to cover today`s 18Z issuance, particularly the extended at
IAH. As moisture deepens over the area, daily rain chances will
begin to return. Too isolated today to justify a mention in any
TAFs, but tomorrow expecting more scattered development along/near
the seabreeze. As such, added a PROB30 for -TSRA at IAH for
planning purposes. Will work to refine expectations for there and
at other seabreeze-impacted sites in future cycles.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and 2 to 4
foot seas should continue over the next several days. Isolated
showers are possible through midweek with greater coverage
expected at the end of the week. Water levels will run above
normal, reaching 3.0 to 3.3 feet above mean lower low water at
times of high tide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  93  70  93 /   0  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  74  93  73  92 /  20  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  80  89 /  10  20  10  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion