Offerman, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS62 KJAX 220051
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
851 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk at Northeast FL Beaches through Tuesday
- Heat Indices 100-105F for Northeast & North Central FL Wed  Fri
- Daily Isolated Thunderstorm Risk Returns Monday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
No big changes to the forecast this evening other than to include
isolated showers a little longer around St Augustine until midnight.
Majority of showers will remain over the waters tonight, sneaking
onto the coast from the Jax beaches northward to Brunswick as the
coastal trough to the east weakens. Skies will be mostly cloudy
along the coast overnight for these areas with low ceilings and
patchy fog, locally dense, forming west of US-17 late tonight as
winds decouple with distance from the coast. Lows will be in the
mid/upper 60s over interior SE GA and the Suwannee river valley of
NE FL. Upper 60s to near 70 along I-95 and the St Johns river and
the low 70s at the coast.
High pressure will weaken to the NNE Monday and more easterly
onshore flow 10-15 mph coast/5-10 mph inland expected as showers
push inland with widely scattered showers and T`storms during the
afternoon as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland. A mix of
low, middle, and high level clouds will keep mostly cloudy skies
persistent through the day. Highs will be in the mid 80s at the
coast, upper 80s for most inland locations except for around 90
degrees south of the Sante Fe River into north central FL.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Breezy NNE winds continue over the coastal waters with the area
between high pressure ridging digging down the eastern seaboard
and an inverted coastal trough just offshore. Drier airmass (PWATs
1.2-1.4 in) and low level subsidence will suppress convection for
one last day. A few coastal showers will shift onshore mainly
between St. Augustine to Flagler Beach this afternoon. Highs will
continue to warm above normal well inland into the low 90s while
onshore flow keeps coastal locations more mild topping out in the
mid/upper 80s. The coastal trough begins to relax tonight causing
the flow to become more ENE lifting coastal showers up the coast
and into SE GA in the early Monday morning hours. Overnight lows
will range in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A frontal boundary lifting across the FL peninsula will bring
tropical moisture into the local area during the start of the
new week as high pressure to the north retreats towards the
Atlantic waters.
Northeasterly flow will continue to usher in showers over the
local waters and towards coastal locations during the morning
hours on Monday with winds along the coast ranging from 10 to
15 mph. By Monday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and
some embedded storms in the onshore flow and increased moisture
will bring activity further towards inland locations. Temperatures
highs in the 80s, with some locations along the I-75 corridor
potentially reaching into the lower 90s. Cooler temperatures along
the coast with the continuing onshore flow. By the evening,
showers and storms across the area will begin to clear. Overnight
lows in the upper 60s for far inland locations of SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley region of NE FL, with warmer lows in the low 70s
along the coast and north central FL continues.
By Tuesday, onshore winds will begin to trend lower as high
pressure shifts further towards the Atlantic. Likely will see
a similar pattern of isolated to scattered morning coastal showers,
with isolated showers and storms by the afternoon hours towards
inland locations. Greater chances of precipitation (40% to 50%)
over north central FL as moisture continues to filter into the
area from the south. Warmer temperatures on Tuesday will allow for
Highs to reach into the lower 90s for inland locations and the
upper 80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Weak ridging midweek will bring drier air over most of the area,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms on limited to
locations in north central FL expected on Wednesday. With lower
sky coverage, highs will rise to the lower 90s with coastal
locations in the upper 80s as easterly onshore flow develops. An
mid/upper low over the central CONUS will begin to shift eastward
by the latter half of the week, with an associated cold front
shifting towards the SE CONUS. A return of scattered convection
area-wide by Thursday, with locations in northern SE GA
potentially seeing numerous showers and embedded storms on Friday
as the frontal boundary presses in from the northwest. As was
mentioned before, this rain will be beneficial for our inland
areas especially across the Suwannee River Valley that is
currently being highlighted for Moderate Drought (D1) conditions.
Scattered showers and storms chances continue on Saturday as the
frontal boundary begins to stall over the area.
Temperature Highs will begin to warm to the lower 90s through midweek,
trending above normal towards midweek. Temperature Highs begin to
drop to the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the week as the
frontal boundary enters the local area. Overnight lows will
continue to be low to mid 70s along the coast and north central
Florida, upper 60s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley
Region of NE FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 847 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Northeast onshore winds will continue overnight initially around
10 knots at the coast lowering to around 4-8 knots after 08Z. MVFR
ceilings will persist at the coastal sites with VCSH at SGJ through
05Z as coastal showers continue to stream near the site with a
tempo group for showers through 04Z. MVFR ceilings will develop
inland after 06Z and trend to IFR/LIFR ceilings by 10Z with
locally dense fog at VQQ between 08-12Z and IFR fog potentially at
GNV after 10Z. Ceilings will lift to MVFR ceilings inland by 13Z
and then VFR ceilings by 16Z with VCSH at the coast expanding
inland after 18-20Z. WInds will increase from the northeast 5-10
knots 13-15Z and then to 10-15 knots at the coast from the east
northeast and 6-10 knots inland under a mix of cumulus clouds
3.0-4.0 kft under broken mid level clouds 10.0 kft. Chances for
thunder too low to include at this time for this TAF package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Northeast winds strengthen to Caution levels today between high
pressure northeast of the local waters and a coastal trough
offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop over the Florida Atlantic waters today, shifting
northward and expanding in coverage across Georgia Atlantic waters
tonight. Monday and Tuesday, winds begin to weaken as high pressure
settles southward down the U.S. eastern seaboard as the coastal
trough weakens offshore. Wednesday into Thursday, high pressure
extends across south Florida as a surface front approaches from the
west-northwest.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Forecast guidance continues to trend lower with peak tidal
flooding crests early this week, with now only the St. Johns River
basin south of downtown Jacksonville toward Welaka reaching
`action` stage around high tides Monday through Thursday. Peak
inundation values are generally < 1.25 ft MHHW, which is below
minor tidal flooding thresholds (generally less than 1.5 ft MHHW
for the St. Johns River basin) and a coastal flood advisory is not
expected at this time based on recent observations and forecast
trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  67  90 /   0  30   0  10
SSI  71  84  73  85 /  20  40  10  20
JAX  69  87  71  90 /  10  40  10  40
SGJ  72  86  73  87 /  20  30  20  40
GNV  66  91  69  93 /   0  20  10  30
OCF  69  90  72  90 /   0  30  10  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion