Oketo, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS63 KTOP 261923
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
223 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and quiet weather is expected through the next week with
  afternoon highs in the 80s.
- Patchy ground fog continues most mornings, mainly in the
  typical lower-lying spots.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed the main
polar jet across Canada. A southern stream upper level trough was
located over central and southern CA, with a down stream upper
level ridge axis across the central Rockies. A southern stream upper
level trough was located across the eastern Great Lakes, southwest
into southeast TX.
The 18Z surface maps showed a cold front extending southward across
central ND, then southwest into southwest SD, and northeast WY.
Light southerly winds were noted across the forecast area with
temperatures already into the lower to mid 80s.
Tonight through Thursday night:
The main polar jet will remain well north of the CWA. The southern
stream H5 trough across southern CA will shift east into the
southwest US and the downstream H5 ridge will amplify across the
Plains this weekend. Expect warm temperatures with mid to upper 80s
possible Sunday afternoon as the H5 ridge axis shifts across the
CWA. The extended range models are in general agreement in the
extended forecast.
Early next week the southern stream H5 trough across the southwest
US will fill as it shifts northeast across the southern high Plains.
Any ascent will remain well southwest and west of the CWA. The
tropical system currently over Cuba will intensify as it heads
northwest towards SC, then will transition an extratropical
closed low across the southeast US, forming a high over low
block across the eastern US.
Tuesday through Thursday, a portion of the polar jet will dig
southeast across the eastern Pacific and amplify an H5 trough
along the west coast. The west coast H5 trough will lift
northeast across the Great Basin into southern Canada. keeping
the CWA dry but warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Friday, a filling southern stream H5 trough will lift northeast across
the high Plains. I don`t see too much ascent ahead of this H5 trough
across eastern KS but there may be weak isentropic lift due to
richer moisture return on Friday, which may provide enough
ascent for isolated showers. IF we see more cloud cover on
Friday, highs may be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Expect VFR conditions. There may be a few CU developing this
afternoon with bases over 5000 feet. Patchy shallow ground fog
may form once again before sunrise at KTOP and KFOE. Any ground
fog that develops will dissipate around 13Z SAT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion