Old Forge, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS61 KALY 141834
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
234 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Highly isolated, light showers remain possible this afternoon as
an upper-level disturbance rotates through the region. High
pressure returns tonight, remaining in place and reinforcing
regionwide dry conditions through at least Wednesday morning. A
couple of disturbances then threaten to disturb tranquility by
increasing chances for showers towards the end of the week but
uncertainty keeps probabilities within the slight chance range.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As seen on latest water vapor imagery, the shortwave looming
over the region since yesterday is continuing to shift eastward
and beginning to depart. While dry conditions have persisted
throughout the day today, courtesy of nearby surface high
pressure and an antecedent dry airmass, light, highly isolated
showers will be possible this afternoon mainly in the Upper-
Hudson Valley, Helderbergs, lower Hudson Valley, and southern
Litchfield County along a weak wind shift boundary associated
with the trough aloft and surface trough/stationary boundary
situated just to our south and east. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis
page outlines weak instability in these areas courtesy of plenty
of sunshine amid mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. In fact,
the clouds in these areas are convective in nature, so a little
forced ascent should be enough to reach saturation and produce
at least a sprinkle. But as these isolated "showers" are
dependent on daytime heating, any that develop will quickly
cease upon its loss and wholly dry conditions will return by
this evening. This will be aided further by the swift increase
in geopotential heights aloft in the face of an eastward-
building ridge and surface pressure increasing as a southeast-
Canadian high slides south in the wake of the trough. Clearing
skies will promote efficient radiative cooling conditions
leading to patchy fog development especially in low-lying areas
and allow low temperatures to drop into the low/mid 40s and low
50s.
With high pressure in place both at the surface and aloft,
conditions will remain dry through at least Wednesday morning
across all of eastern New York and western New England.
Geopotential heights and temperatures aloft will average around
+1 to +2 STDEV above normal throughout this time, according to
the latest NAEFS, translating to above normal surface
temperatures. Highs Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will
subsequently be in the low/mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures
Monday, similarly to tonight`s expectation, look to radiate down
to the mid 40s to low 50s with fog development likely once again
in valley areas. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night,
however, will be a little more mild with upper 40s to upper 50s
possible.
Similarly to previous forecast updates, there still remains
uncertainty pertaining to the details of Wednesday and
Thursday`s forecast, though generally speaking, there seems to
be a consensus which keeps the previously discussed coastal low
to our south at least through Wednesday morning. That said, the
challenge remains whether or not it tracks far enough north
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning to inflict light
showers upon areas south and east of Albany. At this time,
ensembles seem to favor a solution wherein light showers spread
into the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and portions of southwest New
England Wednesday afternoon and possibly lingering into early
Thursday morning. However, given the still very dry airmass and
overall weak forcing, should this solution become the
reality, any rain that reaches the ground will be very light in
nature and not contribute much in the way of accumulations
beyond a few hundredths of an inch. For now, once again, we did
not deviate from the 13z run of the NBM which painted slight
chance to chance PoPs in the aforementioned areas Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. We will continue to monitor trends,
though with guidance beginning to find agreement, confidence is
increasing in this portion of the forecast. And, outside the
chance for precipitation, Thursday`s highs will be in the mid
70s to low 80s with lows cooling primarily to the 50s overnight.
Friday should start off dry as the coastal low moves well off to
our north and east and surface high pressure remains adjacent.
However, chances for precipitation, though only slight, increase
from northwest to southeast Friday morning as another shortwave
trough and associated back-door cold front sink south and east
towards the region. As we are unable to tap into a consistent
moisture source though, the occurrence, let alone spatial extent
of showers remains uncertain at this time. Therefore, maintained
the NBM`s slight chance PoPs in the Southwest Adirondacks
through Friday morning. But amid the uncertainty is one surety:
Friday will be the final day of above-normal conditions over the
next seven days as the cold front will allow temperatures to
drop back towards normal. Friday`s highs will be in the upper
60s to low 80s with lows in the upper 30s to low 50s. Saturday
will be dry with high pressure building back in across the
region with temperatures in the low/mid 60s to low 70s. Lows
Saturday night will then fall to the uper 30s to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thru 18Z Mon...VFR conditions are forecasted prior to 06Z/Mon for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with sct-bkn stratocumulus/cumulus and bkn mid
or high level clouds, as an upper level disturbance moves through.
A few light showers or sprinkles may impact the TAF sites and a VCSH
group was used from 20Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon at KGFL/KALB/KPSF. The skies
will clear thereafter with high pressure building in and some
radiational mist/fog developing at the favored climo sites, such as
KGFL/KPSF where IFR/LIFR conditions are possible 07Z-13Z/Mon. Expect
VFR conditions to return thereafter with mostly sunny conditions.
The winds will be northwest to northeast at 5-10 KT with a few gusts
15-20 KT at KPSF this pm. The winds will become light to calm
tonight and be variable in direction at 5 KT or less in the late
morning into the afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion