Old Hamilton, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

926
FXUS64 KMEG 211145
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
645 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- An unsettled pattern will bring increasing rain chances through
  Monday as several weak disturbances move across the Mid-South.
- A more organized storm system is forecast to bring a cooler and
  wetter end to the week, with increasing confidence in widespread
  rainfall Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Overall, a quiet period for the majority of the Mid-South with
only a few showers and isolated thunderstorms north of the I-40
corridor. Through the overnight hours, eyes will remain on a
decaying MCS currently over the Ozarks region as it moves towards
the Mid-South. CAMs have struggled with the timing of this system
and if it will hold together by the time it reaches our area. If
it were to hold together, this would likely approach our western
counties before sunrise and traverse the area through the morning
hours. There does appear to be a decent inversion at the surface
that would need to be overcome to get any true convection over the
area, but if the system holds together it could provide enough
lift for some additional thunderstorms to develop. Through the
remainder of the day and into Monday, will see some additional
weak disturbances traverse the area as a weak, upper-level ridge
develops east of the area with southwesterly flow aloft. This will
keep scattered PoPs in the forecast through Monday, with higher
chances arriving Tuesday onward. High temperatures will remain
above-normal across the area through at least Monday, spanning
the upper 80s to low 90s.
Tuesday through midweek, the Mid-South will begin to trend towards
a cooler and wetter pattern. Models are still spread on the
ultimate trajectory of a low off the Rockies and how it will
morph with a lingering trough axis over the Great Lakes, creating
some forecast uncertainties. Some LREF clusters favor a slower
progression, while others favor a quicker and more amplified
progression. Both solutions would bring much needed precipitation
to the Mid-South, but the main question will be the strength of
any frontal boundaries and when they would arrive. To this point,
LREF guidance currently has a 12 degree temperature spread in high
temperatures for some locations on Tuesday, so there are
certainly details to still be sorted out in the coming forecast
cycles. As far as precipitation goes, PoPs will likely be highest
across the northern half of the area, with the best chances
(60-80%) coming on Wednesday. NBM guidance favors the highest QPF
remaining generally across NE AR and West TN, with a 40 to 60%
chance of amounts greater than 2 inches through Thursday. This
would be good news as this is generally where the worst drought
conditions currently are. For now, have generally included ~2
inches areawide, with some locations north of I-40 potentially
approaching 3 inches over the period.
For those who have been waiting on true, fall-like conditions,
there is better model agreement that we will see cooler
temperatures arrive near the end of the week and into next week.
By Thursday, high temperatures will fall across the area back to
the upper 70s to low 80s and likely remain there into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The main aviation impact this period will be thunderstorm impacts
at terminals. Lingering showers this morning will dissipate by
noon before another round of storms forms in the evening. Carried
PROB30 TSRA groups at all sites through late evening. Otherwise,
expect VFR CIGs and light southerly winds.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Conditions will remain on the drier side today, mainly across
north MS where minRH values will likely approach 40%. Otherwise,
increasing rain chances through the remainder of the week will
help to curb fire weather concerns.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion