Old Picacho, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

476
FXUS64 KEPZ 180749
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
149 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for through Friday,
   favoring northern and western areas Thursday and becoming
   areawide Friday.
- Moisture levels trend down for the weekend, allowing for lower
   storm chances into next week.
- Temperatures remain near normal this week with a warm-up over
   the weekend and into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Very little, if any deviation from previous forecast packages with
daily afternoon/evening showers and storms expected through the
Saturday as weak Monsoon upper level high pressure continues to pump
anomalous moisture across the region. A noticeable drying trend will
take place Sunday and onward.
For Thursday and Friday, the aforementioned upper level high will
strengthen over northern Mexico. Anomalous moisture will remain in
place across the region with global ensemble guidance indicating PW
values of 1.1-1.3" for the area, which is 30-60% above normal. That
said, the potential for heavy rain and instances of flash flooding
remain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
Wednesday through Friday will be at or slightly below the seasonal
average for the middle of September.
By this weekend, upper level high pressure to our south will begin
to move west and focus itself over Sonora and Baja. This
corresponding clockwise flow around said upper level high will
advect drier air across the Desert SW. Moisture values and rain
chances will slowly decrease starting on Saturday. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible on Saturday as residual
moisture remains in place, generally focusing over the high
terrain. DP temps will fall back into the 30s and 40s with PW
values between 0.5-0.9" on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are
expected areawide, though an isolated storm remains possible over
the Gila and Sacramento Mountains.
By early next week, ensemble guidance and their respected
deterministic solutions are hinting at a boundary pushing in from
the east/northeast. As we are currently at the tail-end of summer
and approaching the beginning of fall, not really expected much
sensible weather changes in terms of temperatures behind this
backdoor push. It may bring in some breezy east winds. Thereafter,
guidance is alluding to upper level high pressure re-establishing
itself over the Desert SW by midweek next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies currently FEW to
SCT at 8-12kft with SCT to BKN at 20-25kft, becoming SCT to
eventually FEW overnight and morning timeframe. Between 18-20Z, SCT CU at
10-15kft will develop across the area with isolated to scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is
low with regard to direct impacts to terminals, so no mention in
TAFs.
Winds light and VRB through the overnight and morning timeframe,
winds will become generally S/SE at 4-8 knots after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay
above critical thresholds. The lowlands can expect min RH values
of 30-40% Thursday through Saturday, decreasing to 15-25% Sunday
through Tuesday. The area mountains will see min RH values of
45-60% through Saturday, decreasing to 30-40% Sunday through
Tuesday. Fairly good rain chances this afternoon with isolated to
scattered storms. A bit more active on Friday with even better
rain chances, with scattered to numerous coverage. Localized flash
flooding possible from storms. Heading into Saturday and onward,
can expect more a low grade type of thunderstorms with generally
isolated coverage. 20 foot winds stay fairly light at 5-8 MPH each
afternoon becoming calm overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  88  69  90  68 /  30  30  20  50
Sierra Blanca            84  61  85  62 /  40  30  30  30
Las Cruces               84  62  85  62 /  30  30  40  50
Alamogordo               86  62  85  62 /  40  20  50  50
Cloudcroft               62  45  62  45 /  60  30  60  50
Truth or Consequences    84  62  81  60 /  20  30  70  50
Silver City              77  57  78  57 /  40  40  80  50
Deming                   85  63  86  62 /  30  30  50  50
Lordsburg                84  63  84  62 /  40  30  70  40
West El Paso Metro       85  69  88  68 /  30  30  20  50
Dell City                87  63  88  65 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Hancock             90  68  91  68 /  40  30  20  30
Loma Linda               79  62  82  62 /  40  30  30  40
Fabens                   88  67  91  67 /  30  30  20  40
Santa Teresa             84  66  87  65 /  30  30  20  50
White Sands HQ           84  65  86  64 /  30  30  50  60
Jornada Range            84  63  84  62 /  30  30  50  60
Hatch                    86  63  87  62 /  30  30  60  50
Columbus                 86  65  88  65 /  30  30  30  40
Orogrande                84  62  84  60 /  40  30  40  50
Mayhill                  72  50  73  51 /  60  20  60  50
Mescalero                74  50  74  50 /  60  30  60  60
Timberon                 71  49  71  50 /  50  30  50  50
Winston                  77  52  74  50 /  30  30  80  50
Hillsboro                83  59  83  57 /  30  30  70  50
Spaceport                84  61  83  60 /  30  30  60  60
Lake Roberts             79  52  77  52 /  40  40  80  50
Hurley                   79  58  80  57 /  40  40  70  50
Cliff                    85  60  84  60 /  40  40  80  40
Mule Creek               81  57  79  57 /  30  50  80  40
Faywood                  79  60  80  59 /  40  40  70  50
Animas                   84  62  85  62 /  50  30  60  40
Hachita                  83  62  84  61 /  50  40  50  40
Antelope Wells           84  61  85  62 /  50  30  50  40
Cloverdale               79  60  80  60 /  50  40  60  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion