Olmito, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

423
FXUS64 KBRO 192324
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Ample tropical moisture, along with diurnal heating and sea breeze
activity will continue to support shower and thunderstorm activity
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley throughout this
weekend and next week. Chances will be between 40-50% for areas
east of US 281/I-69C between now and Sunday, and around 20-30% for
areas west of US 281/I- 69C during the same timeframe. Early
afternoons are the most favorable time of day for shower and
thunderstorm development as daytime heating increases and the sea
breeze advances westward, creating enhanced lift for convective
initiation. On Monday and Tuesday, rain chances decrease to
20-30%, mainly only for areas east of I-69C, with the potential
for increasing chances again on Wednesday and beyond.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s through
the weekend, gradually warming into the mid to upper 90s
throughout next week. Some areas in the Western Ranchlands could
see temperatures in the triple digits by mid-week next week.
Minor (level 1 of 4) Heat Risk is expected throughout Deep South
Texas over the weekend, but this is expected to gradually
increase to predominantly Moderate (level 2 of 4) and Major (level
3 of 4) by mid-week, with the highest Heat Risk expected on
Wednesday. Low temperatures should generally be in the mid to
upper 70s, with a few of the Western counties seeing low
temperatures in the lower 70s. Partly cloudy and light to moderate
east-southeasterly winds are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
For the most part, convective activity has diminished this
evening, though there continues to be showers popping up southwest
of KHRL, which may continue over the next hour or so, bringing
brief periods of moderate to heavy rain, before clearing up. VFR
conditions continue overnight and through tomorrow aside from the
possibility of morning showers at KBRO and again in the afternoon
across all terminals as showers and thunderstorms develop,
bringing additional rounds of lightning, gusty winds and heavy
rain, possibly reducing visibility and lowering ceilings as noted
within the PROB30`s. Gentle easterly winds of around 5-10 knots
continue, though becoming light and variable overnight tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Light to moderate east-southeasterly winds are expected for the
forecast period and should remain below SCEC conditions. In
addition, wave heights are expected to be between 2-3 feet.
Therefore, overall favorable marine conditions are expected for
the next seven days. Conditions could briefly deteriorate in the
immediate vicinity of any thunderstorms that happen to form
offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  91  77  92 /  30  60  30  50
HARLINGEN               73  93  73  94 /  10  50  10  50
MCALLEN                 76  95  77  96 /  10  40  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  96  74  97 /  10  30   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  81  88 /  40  50  50  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  89  77  91 /  20  50  30  50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-Irish

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion