Osburn, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

954
FXUS66 KOTX 292142
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers with gusty outflow winds through this evening.
- Areas of haze and smoke impacting air quality across the
  region.
- Unsettled weather pattern this week with multiple chances for
  showers.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and wetter pattern persists through the week with temperatures
near to below seasonal normals and multiple chances for showers.
Recurring breezy southerly winds through the workweek in the
afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today marks the beginning of a cooler and wetter pattern across the
region with a center of low pressure spinning over Vancouver Island
directing a series of shortwaves into WA and ID through the week.
The first of those shortwaves is slowly tracking through the area
today bringing overcast skies, bands of showers, and breezy south
winds. Precip amounts through tonight will generally be light - a
few hundredths of an inch for lowland areas and between a tenth and
a quarter of an inch for the Cascades and ID panhandle mountains. A
brief period of clearing and drying occurs early Tuesday morning
through Tuesday afternoon, then additional waves of moisture move
through Tuesday evening through Thursday with shower chances focused
mainly over higher elevation areas. Temperatures will cool through
the first half of the week with afternoon highs in the low 60s to
low 70s by Wednesday where they will stay through the end of the
week and into the weekend. Overnight lows will gradually get colder
as well with temperatures likely falling into the 30s for much of
the region by the start of next week. Models are in good agreement
on the low over Vancouver Island weakening and moving inland Friday.
Another area of low pressure looks to quickly drop down from out of
the northwest, sliding into the Great Basin as a ridge of high
pressure develops over the west coast placing WA and ID in a dry
northerly flow regime. Precipitable water values drop to 50 to 70
percent of normal toward the end of the weekend into next week. The
dry airmass will allow for efficient radiational cooling at night,
hence the forecasted lows in the 30s. Breezy south winds will recur
each afternoon and evening through end of workweek across the
Columbia Basin and up the Okanogan Valley with gusts of 25 to 30
mph. /RF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: MVFR/VFR conditions continue through the period with
areas of haze and smoke. Main concern for restrictions to vis
will be Wenatchee, Chelan, Omak, and into the East Slopes
including Winthrop, Plain, and Lake Wenatchee. Isolated IFR
conditions possible for these areas. There is a small chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18-20z Monday for KGEG-
KSFF- KCOE- KPUW-KLWS- KEAT (15-20% chance). Looks to be more
showers than thunderstorms and high based activity. Shower
chances increase to around 30-40% around 21z starting in the
Cascades (KEAT) and spreading into eastern WA after 00z Tue.
Gusty outflow winds will be a concern with any showers and
storms with several hi res models indicating gusts 30+ mph
briefly. Pilots should be prepared for erratic winds with any
precipitation approaching between 21-04z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate confidence for MVFR or worse conditions from wildfire
smoke at any terminals outside the East Slopes of the Cascades.
Moderate confidence for gusty outflow winds, especially over far
SE WA and NC Idaho where hi-res models are showing gusts 30+
kts as showers/decaying storms come through around 02-03z.
Moderate uncertainty with exact timing.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        51  69  50  65  45  65 /  60  30  60  60  40  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  50  65  46  63 /  70  60  70  70  60  20
Pullman        48  67  48  63  43  62 /  70  50  60  60  60  20
Lewiston       57  73  55  71  51  67 /  70  60  50  50  70  20
Colville       41  68  40  63  34  62 /  80  70  70  80  50  40
Sandpoint      51  65  49  61  46  61 /  80  80  80  90  70  40
Kellogg        52  66  52  62  48  60 /  80  80  80  90  80  40
Moses Lake     48  71  49  68  43  67 /  40  10  40  30  10  10
Wenatchee      51  69  51  68  47  65 /  60  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           52  71  50  68  44  65 /  70  20  50  40  20  20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion