Oslund, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

181
FXUS63 KDLH 191731
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds at the head of Lake Superior will create rip
  currents at beaches across the Twin Ports today and
  potentially again Saturday.
- On and off rain showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms
  are expected through the weekend into Monday.
- Seasonal temperatures continue with a slight warming trend
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A cutoff upper-level low with several orbiting lobes of
vorticity will gradually propagate eastward today through
Monday. Early this morning surface low pressure was centered
over eastern South Dakota and will continue fill today. Broad
southerly cyclonic flow over the Upper Midwest will result in
areas of isentropic ascent. Several rounds of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms are forecast today. As of 0830Z (330
AM CDT) regional radar mosaics revealed several bands of
showers with a few thunderstorms over Minnesota and Wisconsin.
We expect additional bands of showers and storms to develop and
pinwheel cyclonically across the region through today. There
were a few gaps in the clouds over central Wisconsin evident in
the GOES-East imagery in a zone from Price County south-
southeastward to Madison and Milwaukee. We expect a few breaks
in the clouds over northwest Wisconsin and portions of the St.
Croix River Valley this morning and afternoon. The brief periods
of sunshine should boost temperatures in those areas into the
70s. Elsewhere where clouds and showers are more persistent
should see high temperatures in the 60s.
Not much change in the overall pattern through the weekend as
the upper low gradually drifts eastward and fills. Expect mostly
cloudy skies with periodic chances of showers and storms
through Monday. Temperatures should trend a few degrees warmer
for Saturday and then see similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday. While the temps are much cooler than earlier this week,
they are within a few degrees either side of normal for mid-
September.
A blocked upper-level pattern will persist over the Plains and
Midwest through next week. Split flow aloft will persist with
the main channel of the subtropical jet displaced anomalously
far north across far northern Canada. Across the US several
cutoff lows will drift generally eastward with stagnant flow.
Generally zonal flow will persist with limited poleward moisture
advection. There may be a few periods when scattered showers
become possible. Otherwise expect seasonal temperatures in the
60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Radar this afternoon shows scattered rain showers across the region.
These rain chances look to persist through the TAF period with low
potential for thunderstorm activity this evening. For now, we have
left a mention of storms out of the TAFs but the most likely
terminals would be HYR/BRD this evening. Ceilings will continue to
be in the MVFR/IFR range through the period as a pair of upper level
lows dance over the Upper Midwest. Locally dense fog is also looking
to linger over the DLH terminal through at least the afternoon and
evening hours.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Update:
Surface observations down in the Twin Ports have been reporting
gusts that are 4-5 kts higher than expected. With winds expected
to continue to increase this afternoon we have issued a Gale
Warning for the head of the Lake.
Previous Discussion:
Surface high pressure over northern Ontario and low pressure
over eastern South Dakota this morning will allow the east and
northeast winds over western Lake Superior to continue today.
Expect winds and gusts to increase through the morning and into
the afternoon. Conditions appear to have improved from Bayfield
to Saxon Harbor WI and we cancelled the Small Craft Advisory
which was in effect for those areas. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect elsewhere and was extended until 10 AM
Saturday. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts of 25 to
33 knots are forecast this afternoon over western Lake Superior.
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed from Bayfield to
Saxon Harbor later today into tonight as conditions worsen.
There is a 30% chance of low-end gales from Duluth to Taconite
Harbor this afternoon. Waves will be highest in the southwest
arm and along the North Shore. Waves will range from 1 to 4 feet
from Sand Island to Oak Point this afternoon and evening and 4
to 8 foot waves elsewhere. Waves occasionally to 10 feet are
possible from Duluth to Taconite Harbor. Low pressure gradually
weakens tonight and Saturday and winds should begin to relax. In
addition to the strong winds, there is a small risk (around
10%) of a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. The
main risk will be temporarily reduced visibility and occasional
cloud-to-water lightning. Additional small chances of
thunderstorms are forecast through Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>143-
     146-147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144-
     145.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion