Overall, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS61 KLWX 160700
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure will approach the area from the south through
midweek, bringing beneficial rainfall. A strong cold front will
cross the area next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A deepening coastal low off the Outer Banks early this morning is
forecast to slowly track northwestward, moving inland across far
eastern NC into southeast VA through tonight. The pressure gradient
across the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to tighten in response to
the strengthening coastal low and high pressure to the north. Local
northeast winds increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph
being commonplace for most areas along/east of I-81. Those along the
Western Shore of the Chesapeake will see gusts around 25-35 mph, and
occasionally up to 40 mph at Point Lookout in Southern MD.
Showers have already moved into parts of Southern MD and Central VA
as of 3AM. This will continue to overspread most of the area
throughout the day and into tonight, bringing beneficial rainfall.
However, rain amounts are going to vary significantly from west to
east. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will be mostly terrain blocked,
so amounts likely total at most 0.10" to 0.20". Between the Blue
Ridge and I-95 rainfall amounts of a quarter to half inch are
forecast. East of I-95 up to 1" is possible. The highest totals will
be in far Southern MD where 1-1.5" of rain are forecast.
Cloudy skies, breezy conditions, and showers keep highs in the 60s
south of I-66, and low to mid 70s to the north of I-66. Showers
today are going to come in waves, with the greatest concentration
being during the mid to late afternoon. After that, we could see a
lull in activity this evening before another round of steady showers
moves in to areas along/east of I-95 overnight tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low that moved over the VA Tidewater weakens through the
day Wednesday as upper level support wanes (due to the mid-level
cutoff low opening up into a wave). The surface low meanders
offshore by Wednesday night. Passing showers are going to continue
for most of the day Wednesday, mostly for areas along/east of US-15.
This keeps highs once again mostly in the upper 60s to around 70F.
Conditions begin to dry out Wednesday night as the low dissipates
and the upper trough drags a weak cold front through the area.
Dry and warmer conditions return on Thursday as a weak surface high
builds over the region. Temperatures jump back to the low 80s. It
will feel a bit muggier Thursday afternoon since the front won`t do
much to scour out the moisture brought in by the coastal low earlier
in the week. Seasonal lows Thursday night in the mid 50s to 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As a broad longwave trough pushes across eastern Canada into the
Atlantic Maritimes, a cold front is slated to sweep southeastward
across the local area on Friday. There is little to no moisture with
this feature so expect a dry frontal passage. However, the influence
of the post-frontal air mass will be bring a drop in temperatures.
After Friday offers high temperatures into the mid/upper 80s, expect
a 5 to 10 degree drop off into the first half of the weekend.
An expansive upper trough initially over the central U.S. approaches
from the west Sunday. This system does begin to shear on its
eastward track which should limit its overall impact. A slight
chance of showers reaches the Alleghenies on Sunday, while expanding
in coverage by next Monday. However, given the weak nature of this
approaching trough and sub- optimal moisture, shower chances are
around 15-20 percent Monday. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A coastal low moving into Southeast VA is going to bring periods of
sub-VFR conditions through Wednesday night. While we start out as
VFR this morning, expect periods of showers this afternoon that will
bring some reductions in visibility. The highest chances for that
are at DCA/BWI/MTN.
Low clouds are expected tonight into Wednesday as the coastal low
makes its closest approach. MRB should remain VFR for the most part
due to terrain blocking by the Blue Ridge. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR
CIGs are likely by 05-06Z Wednesday and these restrictions could
stick around for much of Wednesday with passing showers. Conditions
begin to improve Wednesday night, but could still have sub-VFR
conditions at some terminals.
A dry forecast lies ahead for Friday into Saturday with VFR
conditions expected. A cold front drops down from eastern Canada on
Friday before pushing offshore. This yields a wind shift from
northwesterly on Friday before turning more east to northeasterly by
the following day.
&&
.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday
evening as coastal low meanders along the Mid-Atlantic. Gale
Warnings are in effect for the middle Chesapeake Bay, lower Potomac,
tidal Patuxent, tidal Choptank, and Tangier Sound, with Small Craft
Advisories for the rest of the waters. Winds will gust up to 40
knots in the Gale Warning, and up to 30-35 knots in the SCA. The
strongest winds are expected this afternoon.
As the coastal low weakens on Wednesday and the pressure gradient
across the region slackens, we will see a decline in winds through
the day. Still, SCA conditions are expected for most of the day into
Wednesday evening.
Weak high pressure builds over the region late Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing sub-SCA winds.
Expect sub-advisory caliber winds to the waterways on Friday and
Saturday. A cold front pushes through on Friday with northwesterly
winds gusting to around 15 knots, perhaps slightly higher. As the
system pushes offshore, winds turn more east-northeasterly in the
wake.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore winds increase through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure
builds to the north and low pressure develops off the North
Carolina/Virgina coast. Depending on the strength of the onshore
winds, there is the potential for tidal flooding Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. There could be a snapback tide sometime later
this week when winds slacken when the coastal low dissipates.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...KRR/BRO
MARINE...KRR/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion