Overton Beach, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

118
FXUS65 KVEF 182327
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
427 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Increasing tropical moisture will move into the region today and
  Friday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally
  heavy rain and high rainfall rates will lead to an increased risk
  of flash flooding, especially over San Bernardino County today.
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger through
  the weekend, with more uncertainty next week as additional
  tropical moisture tries to get pulled northward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms continues across southern
Inyo, eastern/central San Bernardino, and southern Mohave
counties. This activity will push northward throughout the
afternoon, likely fizzling out this evening as it reaches our
southern Great Basin zones. Behind it, more robust thunderstorm
development is anticipated the clear slot punches in. Some of this
development is already being seen across far southern San
Bernardino County. It is this activity that is the main flash
flooding and severe wind concern. The extent and longevity of the
secondary convection is a bit uncertain, but it is possible that
this activity lasts well into the evening, bringing a flash flood
and severe threat to southeast Inyo, southern Nye, Clark, and
Mohave counties. Convection should begin to wane late tonight as
it drifts northward. Tomorrow, showers and storms will be less
widespread than today, and largely focused in southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona. Storms will continue to pose an localized
flash flood and gusty wind threat.
As moisture and upper-level support decrease over the weekend,
convection is forecast to become even more isolated and diurnally-
driven. The reduction in moisture/clouds will allow temperatures to
warm near seasonable values. These conditions persist through the
middle of next week as we wait to see how the next tropical remnants
interact with mid-latitude flow. Currently, the most likely scenario
appears to be drier and warmer conditions, but some guidance does
bring the moisture into our area, resulting in another round of
showers and storms around mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light shower activity continues to
moves out of the valley while scattered to broken clouds at 10+ kft
linger. The evening convective forecast remains a bit uncertain, but
vicinity storm chances continue to decreased (now around 20%), thus
the VCTS has been removed for tonight. Confidence increases late
tonight as any lingering convection (should it occur) will likely
move out by 09z. Light winds and improving sky conditions tonight
and tomorrow morning. Vicinity storms possible Friday afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered showers and storms continue across a large
portion of the area this evening. Gusty outflow winds will be
possible with the strongest storms, mainly across San Bernardino and
southern Mohave counties. The abundant moisture and precipitation
has brought CIGs down to 8-10kft in most locations, and they will
likely go lower in the Owens Valley (4-6kft). Convection should
gradually wane overnight as it drifts in the southern Great Basin
and northern Mohave County, largely exiting the forecast area by
daybreak. As this occurs, sky conditions should improve across the
Mojave Desert. Other than some gusty south winds in the Owens
Valley, light winds are expected tomorrow with isolated to scattered
convection mainly focused in southern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Woods/Planz
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion