Ozark, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS64 KTSA 131113
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend,
   which could increase heat stress potential for those with
   outdoor plans.
- A few afternoon showers or a stray thunderstorm possible this
   afternoon, mainly in far NW AR. Additional low precip chances
   develop Sunday afternoon along and west of Highway 75. However,
   most locations likely remain dry with above normal temperatures
   into next week.
- Slightly higher rain chances arrive mid next week with
   temperatures falling back near average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Predominantly quiet conditions are likely across the region today
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will
climb into the mid to upper 90s, so please consider the late season
heat when outdoors this weekend. The high pressure center gradually
slides east today, with low potential for a few afternoon showers or
a stray thunderstorm, primarily in NW AR. Any storm that does
develop may produce gusty winds. However, most locations are likely
to remain dry and mentionable PoPs (15% chance) are restricted to
far NW AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The upper ridge axis moves overhead tonight, then east of the FA
Sunday as an amplified trough swings into the central plains. While
this feature will remain primarily to the north and west of us,
short term guidance suggests at least low rain/ storm chances across
far northwest portions of the CWA. As a result, 10-15% PoPs were
maintained generally along and west of highway 75 Sunday afternoon
and evening, with primarily dry conditions for the remainder of the
area. Heights increase going into early next week before another
upper low moves into the region around mid week. This will tend to
increase precip chances again, especially across NE OK. Low rain
chances may persist through the end of the week with longwave
troughing lingering over the C CONUS. While details on precip timing
and coverage differ at this range, it does appear likely that
temperatures will cool off at least a few degrees by mid-late week,
closer to seasonal normals (mid to upper 80s).
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Some light fog will remain possible at KBVO for the first hour or
so of the forecast period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  73  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   96  71  95  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   93  71  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   93  68  91  67 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   93  68  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   93  69  93  67 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   93  70  92  70 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   93  69  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
F10   93  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   91  71  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion