Padre Island National Seashore, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS64 KCRP 210527
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms into
  the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Low to medium (20-50%) daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through the week, mainly along the seabreeze, will continue
from this afternoon through the middle of the week. Chances increase
slightly to a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms by the
middle of the week as a boundary attempts to move across the area.
As in previous forecasts, the timing of this boundary is still
questionable, but global models are coming into better agreement
that it will push south of the area sometime late this week. We`ll
keep updating the forecast as this gets closer.
Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs over the Brush
Country nearing 100 degrees. As previously mentioned, any rain or
cloud coverage could help keep temperatures slightly cooler, but
will continue with the NBM temperatures until model agreement is
better.
Tidal levels have remained below advisory criteria and it looks as
though we will manage to stay below criteria through this
afternoon`s high tide. We will keep monitoring to determine if a
Coastal Flood Advisory becomes necessary. Beachgoers should also
monitor water levels carefully to avoid being stranded or stuck on
the beach.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions can be expected a majority of the TAF period. Brief
MVFR conditions can be expected for ALI and VCT between 09-13Z
Sunday morning due to low cloud bases and patchy fog. During the day
Sunday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase,
mainly across the Coastal Plains, but can not rule out a stray storm
reaching LRD by late afternoon. Have included a PROB30 for CRP, ALI
and VCT where the best chance of convection is expected beginning
16Z-18Z through 22Z-23Z. The convection may lead to brief periods of
IFR/MVFR conditions and variable gusty winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will continue through
the middle of the week. A frontal boundary is expected to move
through the area by Thursday, switching winds to the northwest
briefly before winds return to a southeasterly flow for the upcoming
weekend. There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  76  93  78 /  40  10  20  10
Victoria          92  74  93  75 /  40  10  30  10
Laredo            97  76 100  77 /  20   0   0   0
Alice             94  74  97  76 /  40  10  20  10
Rockport          89  79  91  80 /  40  20  30  20
Cotulla           97  75 100  76 /  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        92  75  95  76 /  40  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       88  80  90  81 /  50  20  30  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81

NWS crp Office Area Forecast Discussion