Paducah, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

115
FXUS64 KLUB 272313
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected the next few
   afternoons and early evenings in eastern New Mexico. A few
   could make their way across the state line.
- The coolest day will be Monday as a weakening upper low brings
   an increase in cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
After a pleasantly warm Saturday, storms are expected
to fire across eastern NM and persist through the overnight hours
remaining west of the state line.  There are some weak indications
in the CAMs of some activity, mainly overnight, scooting into our
western counties, though confidence is too low to explicitly mention
in the forecast ATTM.  Still...there`s a chance.  Most areas,
however, will remain seasonably dry as late September often is. With
lows in the 50s (to near 60 out east), it will be a coolish start to
Sunday though we climb back into the 80s once again Sunday afternoon
and most of the storm chances will remain across New Mexico during
the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
While the NBM doesn`t indicate on storms in ERN NM much
on Monday, there is some hint of activity in deterministic guidance
for Monday evening. With the passing of a sharp trough, the window
of opportunity would likely be quite fleeting, but the extra forcing
could help something get going though not to any great extent based
on today`s data.  There has been a bit of inter-run variation in the
synoptic pattern and the pattern is fairly complex with the wave
train of energy being ejected from the large scale system to the
west.  As such, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit more
potential than advertised in the official forecast early next week.
Right now, the latter half of the week looks quiet in these parts.
With the next big system approaching Saturday, some data suggests a
decent frontal boundary into the area next weekend.  Despite
inconsistency in the guidance, it would track given the very subtle
MJO entry into phase 2 a couple of weeks back.  Temperatures will
remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms (53/79).
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Showers and
thunder will stay west of the terminals.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion