Pageland, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

057
FXUS62 KCAE 241743
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
143 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and hot temperatures expected again today, with
increasing humidity. The risk for showers and thunderstorms
increases tomorrow into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. The chance of rain continues into the weekend and early
next week with lower temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Above normal temperatures and low rain chances
The upper level pattern becomes a little more amplified today
over the Southeast as a trough digs into the central US and
ridging builds to our east. This setup will lead to stronger
southwest flow across the area and warm, moist advection. PWAT
values will rise through the day to around 1.6 to 1.7 inches.
However rising heights will hinder convective development this
afternoon limiting the chance for precipitation.
Warm advection and rising heights will support above normal
temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s today. A
noticeable rise in humidity expected as well with the
strengthening southwest low level winds. This will lead to heat
indices maxing out in the mid to upper 90s, quite atypical for
this time of year. Low temperatures remain well above average as
well, with lows around 70 degrees. Widespread fog will be less
likely tonight than the previous night given a 20 to 30 kt low
level jet which will support mixing at the low levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances increase on Thursday as a cold front approaches. A
few thunderstorms may be strong with mainly a damaging wind threat.
- Not as hot on Friday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms possible.
Thursday and Thursday Night: The axis of a positively tilted upper
trough will stretch from southern Michigan southwest to northeastern
Texas at the start of the period, gradually moving eastward. This
will continue to promote southwesterly flow aloft, maintaining warm
air and moisture advection from the Gulf. The attendant cold front
will be located over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys at the start of
the day also making its way eastward towards the FA. PWATs will be
quite high for this time of year, with values increasing to around 2
inches by daybreak Friday. Expect rain chances to increase from west
to east as the day goes on. The SPC maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk
for severe weather across our forecast area. The overall threat will
depend on how much instability can develop ahead of the approaching
cold front and when the anticipated line of convection arrives.
Modeled soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 20-25 knots of
wind shear which would support the Marginal severe risk with
damaging wind gusts from rain loaded downdrafts being the primary
hazard. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out as well.
Daytime temperatures will depend on how much cloud cover there is
and another hot and humid day is possible, particularly across the
southeastern half of the CWA. The current forecast shows a wider
range of values than today with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s.
Friday and Friday Night: The upper trough weakens on Friday and may
produce a cutoff low near Tennessee by the end of the period. There
are key differences in its strength between the guidance with the
deterministic GFS showing a closed low while the Euro is weaker and
not quite closed off by daybreak Saturday. At the surface, the cold
front will sluggishly move towards the FA as the day goes on,
keeping the risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. With
the storm system closer to the CWA, rain chances will likely be
higher than on Thursday for most locations. There will be more
clouds around on Friday, both lowering temperatures and instability.
This means that the threat of severe weather will be lower. However,
the threat of excessive rainfall will be higher as indicated by the
Marginal (1/4) risk for the Midlands and CSRA on the latest WPC Day
3 ERO. As mentioned, daytime temperatures should be lower on Friday,
with forecast highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Not as hot as daytime temperatures fall to near normal values.
- The risk of rain remains through the extended.
- Watching a tropical wave in the Caribbean (Invest AL94) for
possible development and impacts.
An upper level low or weak trough is expected to linger to the north
and west for much of the long term. The strength of this feature,
and where it moves, will likely play a pivotal role in the evolution
of the tropical wave designated Invest 94L by the NHC, currently
located near St. Croix in the Virgin Islands. There remains a high
level of uncertainty regarding the track of this tropical wave once
it reaches the Bahamas and while some of the guidance takes the
system near the Southeast US coast, it is still too early to discuss
what, if any, impact the system will have on the Midlands and CSRA.
Due to the presence of the aforementioned upper low, the NBM
maintains a wet pattern, especially on Saturday, with daytime
temperatures around seasonal values.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southeast flow will strengthen over the Southeast through the
next 24 hours. Despite increased moisture, we do not expect
showers or storms to impact the TAF sites through 18Z Thursday.
Most of the convective activity will remain well west keeping
our rain chances low. A more amplified upper level pattern will
lead to strengthening SW winds today and tonight. Expect SW
winds today from 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon.
Tonight, a moderate LLJ will develop with speeds from 20 to 30
kts around 2,000 ft. Since surface winds will stay up it is
unlikely that we will meet LLWS criteria, but the enhanced
mixing should help suppress the pattern of early morning fog
we`ve seen at AGS and OGB lately. However given the tendency of
these two sites, we cannot completely rule out brief
restrictions early Thursday morning. S winds overnight pick up
out of the SW around 15Z Thursday with gusts from 15 to 20 kts
through the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture continues to increase
leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions from late Thursday and into the weekend.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion