Palo, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

157
FXUS63 KDLH 302347
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal for late this week
  with a few broken temperature records possible.
- Gusty east winds are creating a high risk for rip currents in
  the Twin Ports beaches this afternoon and continues this
  evening. These winds decrease in speed this early tonight.
- Very low chances for precipitation through Friday, then
  increasing this weekend...first for far northern Minnesota.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A vorticity maxima lifts northward around a strong stacked
surface to mid-level high pressure in place over the Upper
Midwest. The main result will be an isolated rain shower chance
shower chance through this evening in north-central Minnesota.
For all but immediate lakeshore areas, winds turn southeasterly
overnight and then further southerly tomorrow as stronger winds
aloft build into Wednesday daytime. Expect an increase in
south-southeasterly wind speeds beginning Wednesday, along with
steadily increasing temperatures. As a warm front lifts through
the Upper Midwest Wednesday night, the next round of very low
end rain chances (10-20%) build from west to east. On Thursday,
expect fairly dry relative humidity and southwest winds in
eastern Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin. Gusts to 30
mph from the southwest are possible Thursday late morning to
early evening under prime mixing. An even warmer airmass moves
northward to cover the entire Northland by Friday. Daytime high
temperatures Friday are forecast to be about 20 degrees F above
normal for early October. More on these possible record breaking
temperatures can be found in the .CLIMATE section below. Recent
trends in guidance have backed off on the southern extent of the
rain showers for Friday PM and Saturday morning as the frontal
boundary favors a northward track. This has limited much of the
blended ensemble guidance probability of precipitation and shows
in lower rain chances for this time period over the Northland,
but especially far northern Minnesota; a slower push into
northwest Wisconsin was always expected. If this trend continues
then a warmer, drier and gustier forecast trend could setup
over the next couple of days for the early weekend time
period. This will also have to be monitored for any impacts to
fire weather conditions Friday and possibly even Saturday if
this drier signal becomes a longer trend. What does still remain
fairly likely is a cold frontal passage late weekend (sometime
on Sunday / Sunday night) to drop temperatures back to normal
and rain shower chances. Gusty west-northwest surface winds
Sunday evening last into early next week with persist 20-30%
chance of rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A cluster of thunderstorms is moving northward this evening, and
should remain mainly west of INL. There is a low chance of
lightning within 5-10 miles of the terminal and will include
VCTS at INL through 04Z.
This cluster will continue to move northward into southern
Canada, with rainfree conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period. Breezy east to southeast winds will diminish
overnight to 6-8kts. Winds increase again Wednesday morning from
the southeast at 10-12kts, with wind gusts of 16-21kts.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Gusty easterly winds continue through this evening, helping to
create the observed 3 to 5 foot waves that are forecast up to 6
feet. As the pressure gradient decreases overnight, expect a
tapering in wind speeds although remaining easterly into
Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until pre-dawn
hours Wednesday morning for the lingering swell and easterly
winds. A wind shift to southerly will occur Wednesday evening
and increase speeds along the South Shore, particularly for the
Saxon Harbor area. There is a 30-40% chance that a short-term
Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Wednesday into Thursday
for those southerly winds. These southerly winds gusting to 20
knots persist into Thursday. As an early heads up, late weekend
could feature a notable wind shift to west-northwesterly Sunday
afternoon and/or evening behind a cold front. This would then be
a possible scenario (20-40% chance) for winds gusting 25-35
knots in the western waters. While this scenario is not
currently represented in the forecast for Sunday, this is one
possible forecast scenario to at least be aware of right now.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>146-
     150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...NLy

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion