Pauline, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS63 KTOP 161949
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers and storms may form this afternoon.
- A minor disturbance will provide a 20 to 40 percent chance for
  showers and storms late Tonight through Wednesday.
- Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning the a more
  amplified upper level disturbance will move east across the
  area providing a 60-80% chance for showers and storms.
- Cooler temperatures finally move into the area Thursday into
  Friday with season normal temperatures through the weekend
  into early next week. There may be a few isolated showers or
  storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Early this afternoon an upper level trough was located across the
central Rockies. A high over low block was located across the
eastern US with the upper low centered across the NC/SC border and a
broad upper fridge axis across the northeast, northward into
northern Quebec, Canada. A broad upper low was located off the
British Columbia, Canada coast.
At the surface, a lee surface trough was located across eastern CO
and extended southward across eastern NM. A complex of storms due to
upslope flow and DCVA ahead of the central Rockies upper level
trough have formed across western NE and southwest SD. A
stationary front was located along the SD/NE border, then
extended northeast across western MN as a surface cold front.
Today through Tonight:
Most CAMs do not show much deep moist convection developing this
afternoon through Tonight. Surface heating combined with any
minor perturbation rounding the central Rockies H5 trough may
provide enough ascent for isolated showers and storms this
afternoon through the early evening hours. Any isolated storms
that develop should dissipate around sunset. Effective shear
will be under 20 KTS and MLCAPES will be around 1500 J/kg. A
pulse type storm could produce gusty winds. The convective
complex across western NE should remain well north of the CWA.
Wednesday through Thursday night:
Rain chances will increase as the central Rockies H5 trough slowly
shifts east across the Plains. The combination of increasing DCVA
ahead of the H5 trough combined with convergence ahead of a weak
front and isentropic lift on the northwest side of the surface front
will provide periods of showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. The effective shear increases through the day
Wednesday as the H5 trough approaches but increasing cloud cover may
keep MLCAPEs below 1500 J/kg, thus the the thunderstorms should stay
below severe levels. The HREF shows the greatest probabilities
of receiving 0.25" of qpf will be Wednesday night into Thursday
morning with a 45 to 70 percent across the CWA. The NBM PoPs
will range between 60 to 80 percent late Wednesday into Thursday
morning. The NBM forecast QPF ranges between 0.5" across the
southeast counties to around 0.8" elsewhere across the CWA.
Friday through Tuesday:
The extended range models show the H5 trough across the Plains
shifting east across the Mid MS River Valley on Friday. Any
lingering showers Friday morning will shift east into MO. Friday
afternoon and Friday night look dry.
Saturday through Tuesday the CWA will be under west-northwest flow
aloft. There may be slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the period as embedded perturbations within the west-
northwest flow dig southeast across the Plains. By the end of
next week an H5 ridge will amplify across the Plains and may
bring back the warmer weather.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few isolated
showers and storms may develop this afternoon and Tonight but
confidence is too low to include into TAFs. Several CAMs show a
better chance for scattered showers and isolated storms at KMHK
after 12Z WED, with isolated showers and storms at KTOP and
KFOE.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion