830 FXUS65 KPIH 170704 AFDPIHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 104 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend expected into early next week
- No precipitation expected until at least this weekend and even then, chances will be low into next week
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 103 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Early morning satellite imagery shows much of the region void of cloud cover as high pressure begins to build over the area. Will likely see at least some occasional CU for areas closer to the Wyoming border where an upper low still lingers across the Cowboy State but for the most part, skies should be mostly clear today. Winds will also be light and the region will be void of precipitation. Temperatures will continue to trend upwards today, and for the days ahead, as the ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen. Low to mid 70s appear likely across the lower elevations today. Overnight lows tonight into Thu AM will mainly be in the 40s, with 30s across the high elevations. These too will trend upwards over the days ahead.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
High pressure resurges for a bit across the state, bringing dry weather until the weekend. The ridge breaks down as a couple of weaker lows scoot across to our north and west. Enough monsoon moisture is there for some showers and storms over the weekend, but nothing too widespread or concerning at the moment. High pressure rebounds early next week as a blocking pattern tries to set up over the U.S. and southern Canada. Depending where that exactly settles in will determine if we are dry under the ridge or under southwest flow and trying to pull some monsoon moisture our way. For now, the Blend of Models keeps us dry after Sunday. Temperature continue to creep back up, with some low 80s returning through Saturday and again next week...with a very brief "cooldown" on Sunday.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 915 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
High pressure axis will be over western Idaho for at least Fri, so expect no CIGs with the exception of KDIJ where residual moisture will likely mean cumulus build-ups for the afternoon again. There should not be any restriction to VSBY; the issue with VSBY at KBYI is the sun angle into the sensor imitating HZ or BR. The upper level wind is very weak, and there is still a northerly to easterly flow at KIDA and KPIH with the axis staying to the west, and a thermal surface pressure trough underneath. Thus wind should not be impactful, either.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A warming and dry pattern looks to take hold for the remainder of the work week with no rain chances expected until at least the weekend, and even then they`ll still be low, as high pressure will be in control of local weather. Temps will rise above climatic norms by the end of the week which will bring lower elevation RHs close to 15 percent by Friday but not expecting winds to be much of a concern. Isolated precip chances return to the forecast for the weekend as a weak system looks to move north of the area. Some potential for increased winds with this but still a bit of model uncertainty with that. Confidence is high with above normal temperatures looking likely into early next week with mostly dry conditions.
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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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SHORT TERM...McKaughan LONG TERM...Keyes AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan
NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion