Pembroke, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

771
FXUS62 KILM 162255
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
655 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger near the southern Mid Atlantic region
while weakening through Wednesday. High pressure will return to
the area bringing drier and slightly warmer weather for the
second half of the week. A coastal trough early next week will
cause rain chances to return.
&&
.UPDATE...
No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts. Updated
aviation forecast for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure moving onshore near the northeastern NC and
southeastern VA border will begin to weaken as it pushes farther
inland this evening. Dry air circulating the low should scour
any remaining mid or upper level clouds while a lack of mixing
in the boundary layer erodes low clouds over southeastern NC.
With the lack of cloud cover, temperatures will drop into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Increasing cloud cover late tonight
into Wednesday morning will keep temperatures over southeastern
NC a few degrees warmer.
Dry, NW then westerly flow on Wednesday will bring a mix of sun
and clouds to the region, particularly in southeastern NC.
Temperatures should warm quite nicely over SC with low to mid
80s expected. Much more uncertainty over NC with some morning
low clouds and peeks of sunshine during the afternoon,
periodically warming temperatures into the upper 70s (possibly
lower 80s with more sunshine).
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to
weaken before being absorbed by larger trough to the north, the
pressure pattern and associated wind field locally becomes
rather diffuse and weak through the end of the week. Plenty of
sunshine, weak downslope flow, and subsidence aloft will
contribute to above normal temps on Thursday with highs in the
upper 80s. Low temps Thursday morning in the low 60s with low to
mid 60s forecasted for Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continuing dry weather starts the long term period with weak
pressure and wind field Friday before yet another surface high
pressure wedge builds in from the north Saturday through Monday.
Sunny and warm Friday and Saturday, with high temps near 90F.
Northeasterly winds will become breezy Saturday night through
Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between the wedge
inland and a coastal trough/low off the Southeast coast. This
trough/low will lead to increased clouds, temps back to near
normal, and possibly a chance of showers as it moves closer to
the coast Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance range from no
rain at all (with subsidence aloft playing a role) to decent
rainfall at the coast with this system, so expect changes to the
forecast throughout the week. Elevated PWATs are currently
forecasted to linger through Tuesday so have kept in slight
chance pops at the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Thu across NE SC
and much of SE NC as deep low pressure to the north continues to
weaken and slowly move away. With chances of MVFR cigs at
KILM/KLBT lowering we have removed mention, although can`t
completely rule them out for a brief time late tonight thru Wed AM.
Extended Outlook...VFR expected through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Low pressure drifts north and east late
tonight into Wednesday. A weakening gradient will see lighter NW
winds on Wednesday. Seas around 2-4 feet this evening will
decrease to 1-2 feet late Wednesday.
Wednesday Night through Sunday...Benign marine conditions in
store for the end of the week as pressure pattern becomes
diffuse. Southwest winds Wednesday night weakens to 10 kts or
less Thursday through Friday night, with W or SW winds
Thursday/Thursday night backing to E or NE winds Friday/Friday
night. Seas around 1-2 ft through Friday night, primarily due to
E swell with weak wind chop mixed in.
On Saturday, a surface high pressure wedge begins to build
inland, leading to northeast winds increasing in strength over
the coastal waters. NE winds 15-20 kts Saturday afternoon
through Sunday with gusts near 25 kts currently forecasted as
pressure gradient tightens between inland wedge and a coastal
trough/low off the Southeast coast. Seas respond in turn,
building to 3-4 ft Saturday afternoon and 4-6 ft for Sunday with
strengthening E swell. Will also see increased shower and
thunderstorm chances on Sunday over the waters as the coastal
trough/low approaches the coast.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB/21
MARINE...VAO/21

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion