Pomaria, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS62 KCAE 221724
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
124 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, dry conditions, and turning hot through mid-week.
Rain chances will then be on the increase into the end of the
week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Summer like day to start to start the fall with warm temps and
  plenty of sun.
Weak high pressure continues to the linger to our north, driving
some northeast winds down into our area. Thanks to plenty of
sun, temps will climb back above average this afternoon with
highs in the upper 80`s across the area. Outside of some
scattered clouds, not much in the way of sensible weather
expected today otherwise. Calm winds overnight and increasing
moisture will yield a decent set up for some fog Tuesday
morning; confidence is not high in any dense, impactful fog as
of now though.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and hot through the middle of the week.
Weather will continue through the middle of this week. Heights
are forecast to rise on Tuesday and Wednesday as a deep trough
begins to push into the lower MS River Valley, settling to our
west by Thursday morning. Deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
overspread the area during this period with a slow but steady
increase in PWs noted through both days as well. Given the
anomalous heights, mostly sunny skies, and southwesterly flow,
highs both days are forecast to be well above normal in the low
to mid 90s for most places. Lows will also be increasing to
above normal values as guidance indicates that PWs will be back
in the 1.7"+ range along with upper 60s dewpoints. So look for
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and
  Friday.
- Forecast is uncertain this coming weekend but it does look
  cooler and drier.
Aforementioned increase in moisture ahead of an approaching cold
front is likely to result in our first real, widespread rain
chances in quite a while. The trough/front will still be to our
west on Thursday morning but a gradual increase in lift is
expected through the day, with showers/storms likely to develop
by the evening hours. Depending on the magnitude of cloud cover
Thursday morning, it could be another very warm day with highs
likely in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rain chances look more
robust on Thursday night and Friday as the front and trough
approach the region, and PoPs reflect this. Beyond this,
guidance continues to struggle with the exact synoptic setup and
what happens with the trough but it does look like there is a
trend towards it cutting off and remaining to our west over the
weekend. This would tend to suggest that we may hold onto rain
chances into this weekend and early next week, with temps near
to slightly below normal. However, given the spread amongst
guidance regarding the exact location of the low, didn`t make
many changes to the NBM and it reflects the potential for rain
but by no means a certainty of it beyond Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions likely Monday with stratus-fog likely Tuesday
morning.
Typical warm summer afternoon expected with some gusty north-
northeast winds, turning more variable later today, with gusts
up to 20 knots. Only typical summer few cu expected into the
late afternoon with some scattered mid- upper level clouds
otherwise. Winds will go light and variable and some stratus-fog
is expected into Tuesday morning. For now mentioned IFR cigs-
vsby around sunrise but some guidance does suggest a more dense
fog, LIFR stratus event depending on how strong the low level
winds are.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion