Pontotoc, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

007
FXUS64 KSJT 061731
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms possible into tonight.
- Rain chances will continue Sunday into Monday, with dry
  conditions returning by Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Early this morning, a cold front was bisecting the forecast area
and as of 2 AM was located just north of a San Angelo to Brownwood
line. The front will drift south through the morning hours and is
expected to be south of I-10 by mid to late morning. Remnant
moisture from what was Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to
advect eastward from northern Mexico. Abundant cloud cover will
prevail today and with a cooler airmass behind the front,
temperatures will be well below normal. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will persist today into tonight, with the
highest rain chances (30 to 60%) from the Concho Valley and
Heartland southward to the I-10 corridor. While the threat for
flooding rains is low today, precipitable water values will range
between 1.5 and 1.8 inches, which will contribute to some heavy
downpours at times. Highs today will generally be in the mid and
upper 70s, with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Some of the moisture off of the eastern Pacific wave will continue
drifting across the area on Sunday and Monday. This will interact
with some weak disturbances aloft and provide a chance for continued
rain showers and thunderstorms across the area. Ample moisture will
allow for efficient rainfall production that could result in fairly
high rainfall rates. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked the
I-10 corridor with a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) of seeing
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. This will be the
primary concern for Sunday and Monday.
Otherwise, the GFS and ECMWF develop high pressure across the Plains
by midweek, which will keep our area hotter and drier. Highs are
likely to return to the middle 90s by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at most sites early this
afternoon. Expect ceilings to gradually rise into the VFR category
this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return to the southern sites
after 08Z. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this
afternoon, mainly at the southern 3 sites. Expect a decrease in
activity this evening. North to northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots
will become light this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  85  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
San Angelo  63  84  65  88 /  20  20  10  20
Junction    64  84  65  89 /  40  50  10  30
Brownwood   63  84  63  88 /  10  20   0  10
Sweetwater  63  86  65  90 /  10  20  10  10
Ozona       65  81  65  86 /  40  50  10  30
Brady       64  82  64  86 /  20  30  10  20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Daniels

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion